TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13055300
Played Sep 1Finished
Jan Krupnik
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1131412118––––
Michal Moravec
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:27 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeJan Krupnik to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Michal Moravec below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 59 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jan Krupnik at 56.4%
59 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 15–14 Michal Moravec Michal Moravec has won 14 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:27What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Krupnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-14 in 29
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1625 vs Moravec 1446
Krupnik
Correct
both rated, 179 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 80% vs Moravec 0%
Krupnik
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 70% vs Moravec 10%
Krupnik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik +4 · Moravec -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krupnik) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 1.80 / Moravec 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krupnik)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13055300
Krupnik1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 147 of 271
Up 2–0, closes it96% 68 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it72% 106 of 148
Moravec1.91
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 48 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back30% 18 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik4wins
AwayMoravec6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMoravec leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik33.3%1 of 3
AwayMoravec57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik3Moravec7n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S2Krupnik6Moravec4n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S3Krupnik4Moravec6n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S4Krupnik5Moravec4n = 9Krupnik took 5 of 9
S5Krupnik1Moravec2n = 3Moravec took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikMoravecK − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.539.9−1.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime424 / 828 vs 180 / 36551.2%49.3%424 / 828 vs 180 / 365Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikKrupnik 1.80/Moravec 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.3%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 07:45J. Krupnik—811128113M. Moravec—116101162
WAug 29 · 17:00J. Krupnik—11111113M. Moravec—118771
WAug 29 · 14:15J. Krupnik—31113113M. Moravec—1181191
LJul 27 · 11:40J. Krupnik—119891M. Moravec—51111113
LJul 22 · 11:40J. Krupnik—11891182M. Moravec—911115113
LJul 1 · 12:45J. Krupnik—9121181M. Moravec—111013113
LJul 1 · 11:40J. Krupnik—4116101M. Moravec—11311123
LJun 15 · 13:05J. Krupnik—107111182M. Moravec—121177113
WJun 15 · 10:10J. Krupnik—11127113M. Moravec—6101181
LMay 20 · 10:40J. Krupnik—7850M. Moravec—1111113
J. Krupnik10
WSep 8 · 21:15D. Skulina1.7357110J. Krupnik2.001111133WSep 8 · 20:15J. Krupnik1.531111113A. Cizek2.385970LSep 8 · 18:45D. Skulina1.801211143J. Krupnik1.91104120WSep 8 · 18:15J. Lisztwan1.831061151J. Krupnik1.8312119113WSep 7 · 20:45R. Sedlacek1.8311690J. Krupnik1.831311113LSep 7 · 19:45D. Skulina1.801111113J. Krupnik1.917950LSep 7 · 19:15R. Sedlacek1.91121176123J. Krupnik1.801061111102WSep 7 · 18:15J. Krupnik1.73915115113J. Travnicek2.00111391162WSep 5 · 12:40J. Krupnik1.3611711113E. Precek3.00911261LSep 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.67111177113J. Krupnik2.1069111152
M. Moravec10
WSep 1 · 12:39M. Moravec1.5014311153A. Cizek2.5012112131LSep 1 · 12:10M. Moravec2.007880T. Kindl1.731111113WSep 1 · 10:40A. Cizek2.109710M. Moravec1.671111113LSep 1 · 08:55B. Mrowetz1.111115123M. Moravec6.00913100LSep 1 · 07:45J. Krupnik1.69811128113M. Moravec1.96116101162LSep 1 · 07:15I. Heuman1.64611911113M. Moravec2.0411711562LSep 1 · 06:15M. Moravec1.981081191B. Mrowetz1.7312118113LAug 31 · 12:35M. Moravec1.915590T. Krenek1.801111113LAug 31 · 12:10M. Moravec1.836980R. Benes1.831111113WAug 31 · 10:40T. Krenek1.731310131192M. Moravec2.001112157113
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