TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13055893
Played Sep 1Finished
Ales Cizek
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911711111––––
Michal Moravec
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:35 and never touched — 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Moravec to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Cizek above · Michal Moravec below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 1-11
Point 50 set 3, 1-11 — our read held Michal Moravec at 54.8%
50 points played in total.
H2H Ales Cizek 5–10 Michal Moravec Ales Cizek has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:35What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-10 in 15
Moravec
Correct
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1555 vs Moravec 1433
Cizek
Wrong
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 20% vs Moravec 0%
Cizek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 40% vs Moravec 10%
Cizek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek -4 · Moravec -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moravec) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (0%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 2.10 / Moravec 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Moravec)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13055893
Cizek2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 70 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 50
Moravec1.67
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 50 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it67% 33 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCizek3wins
AwayMoravec7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMoravec leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCizek33.3%1 of 3
AwayMoravec71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek3Moravec7n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S2Cizek3Moravec7n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S3Cizek1Moravec9n = 10Moravec took 9 of 10
S4Cizek5Moravec2n = 7Cizek took 5 of 7
S5Cizek3Moravec2n = 5Cizek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricCizekMoravecC − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.941.0−3.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime217 / 447 vs 180 / 36648.6%49.2%217 / 447 vs 180 / 366Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecCizek 2.10/Moravec 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.2%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 20:43A. Cizek—511711113M. Moravec—11511352
LAug 24 · 20:15A. Cizek—1081131M. Moravec—12117113
WAug 12 · 19:15A. Cizek—7111111113M. Moravec—11513972
WJul 20 · 16:10A. Cizek—11111114113M. Moravec—813131272
LJul 17 · 16:49A. Cizek—9850M. Moravec—1111113
LJul 17 · 14:15A. Cizek—711101182M. Moravec—111128113
LJun 5 · 16:10A. Cizek—79110M. Moravec—1111133
LMay 16 · 21:08A. Cizek—117841M. Moravec—71111113
LMay 16 · 19:40A. Cizek—10540M. Moravec—1211113
LMay 15 · 13:10A. Cizek—11961392M. Moravec—7111111113
A. Cizek10
LSep 8 · 20:45A. Cizek1.9111117492J. Lisztwan1.80581111113LSep 8 · 20:15J. Krupnik1.531111113A. Cizek2.385970WSep 8 · 19:15A. Cizek2.381141111113J. Lisztwan1.5371151372LSep 8 · 17:45D. Skulina1.40114119113A. Cizek2.7571161192WSep 7 · 20:40D. Branny1.671166131A. Cizek2.1041111153LSep 7 · 19:40A. Kanak1.731111113A. Cizek2.009860LSep 7 · 19:10D. Branny2.101211113A. Cizek1.6710870WSep 7 · 18:10A. Cizek1.7312119123T. Molin2.0010711101WSep 5 · 20:58K. Kleprlik1.53118581A. Cizek2.3871111113LSep 5 · 19:45K. Kleprlik1.611111113A. Cizek2.208670
M. Moravec10
WSep 1 · 12:39M. Moravec1.5014311153A. Cizek2.5012112131LSep 1 · 12:10M. Moravec2.007880T. Kindl1.731111113LSep 1 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.801114113M. Moravec1.9131280LSep 1 · 08:55B. Mrowetz1.111115123M. Moravec6.00913100LSep 1 · 07:45J. Krupnik1.69811128113M. Moravec1.96116101162LSep 1 · 07:15I. Heuman1.64611911113M. Moravec2.0411711562LSep 1 · 06:15M. Moravec1.981081191B. Mrowetz1.7312118113LAug 31 · 12:35M. Moravec1.915590T. Krenek1.801111113LAug 31 · 12:10M. Moravec1.836980R. Benes1.831111113WAug 31 · 10:40T. Krenek1.731310131192M. Moravec2.001112157113
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