TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13097505
Played Sep 8Finished
David Skulina
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117411116911119
Ales Cizek
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:09 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Skulina to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Skulina above · Ales Cizek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 90 set 5, 11-9 — our read held David Skulina at 57.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H David Skulina 3–2 Ales Cizek Ales Cizek has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:09What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Skulina
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skulina 1630 vs Cizek 1479
Skulina
Correct
both rated, 151 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skulina 80% vs Cizek 60%
Skulina
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skulina 50% vs Cizek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skulina +2 · Cizek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Skulina) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cizek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkulina 1.40 / Cizek 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Skulina)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13097505
Skulina1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 27 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it75% 21 of 28
Cizek2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog42% won 73 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back19% 19 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSkulina3wins
AwayCizek2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderSkulina leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkulinan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayCizek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skulina2Cizek3n = 5Cizek took 3 of 5
S2Skulina3Cizek2n = 5Skulina took 3 of 5
S3Skulina3Cizek2n = 5Skulina took 3 of 5
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricSkulinaCizekS − CBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match33.432.6+0.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkulinaCizekBasisWin rate · lifetime76 / 149 vs 223 / 46651%47.9%76 / 149 vs 223 / 466Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkulinaSkulina 1.40/Cizek 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Skulina · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skulina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 2 · 20:48D. Skulina—1311113A. Cizek—11480
WSep 2 · 19:45D. Skulina—1111123A. Cizek—49100
LAug 24 · 17:45D. Skulina—71090A. Cizek—1112113
WJul 6 · 21:15D. Skulina—5111412113A. Cizek—117121462
LJul 6 · 17:45D. Skulina—6760A. Cizek—1111113
D. Skulina10
WSep 8 · 18:45D. Skulina1.801211143J. Krupnik1.91104120WSep 7 · 21:15J. Travnicek1.8324130D. Skulina1.831111153WSep 7 · 19:45D. Skulina1.801111113J. Krupnik1.917950LSep 7 · 18:45D. Skulina1.735970J. Travnicek2.001111113WSep 7 · 17:45D. Skulina1.57131311143R. Sedlacek2.2511155121WSep 6 · 20:48P. Marsalek2.0058100D. Skulina1.731111123LSep 6 · 19:40D. Skulina1.6711119492M. Macurak2.10771111113LSep 6 · 18:40D. Skulina1.674770J. Travnicek2.101111113LSep 6 · 17:40D. Skulina1.50101331182P. Marsalek2.501211117113WSep 4 · 21:10D. Skulina1.5761111153K. Kleprlik2.251177131
A. Cizek10
WSep 7 · 20:40D. Branny1.671166131A. Cizek2.1041111153LSep 7 · 19:40A. Kanak1.731111113A. Cizek2.009860LSep 7 · 19:10D. Branny2.101211113A. Cizek1.6710870WSep 7 · 18:10A. Cizek1.7312119123T. Molin2.0010711101WSep 5 · 20:58K. Kleprlik1.53118581A. Cizek2.3871111113LSep 5 · 19:45K. Kleprlik1.611111113A. Cizek2.208670LSep 5 · 19:15I. Heuman1.73128116183A. Cizek2.001011611162LSep 5 · 18:15A. Cizek1.571010111192T. Lysek2.25121259113LSep 4 · 08:48A. Cizek1.5381341242L. Lasota2.3811111110113WSep 4 · 07:45A. Cizek1.80911711113L. Lasota1.9111611472
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