TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13094842
Played Sep 7Finished
Daniel Branny
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1146116111315––
Ales Cizek
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:36 and never touched — 61.8% is still 61.8%
Graded at full timeAles Cizek to win
61.8%
61.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Branny above · Ales Cizek below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 77 set 4, 13-15 — our read held Ales Cizek at 61.8%
77 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Branny 1–4 Ales Cizek Daniel Branny has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:36What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Branny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Cizek
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Branny 1504 vs Cizek 1479
Branny
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Branny 40% vs Cizek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Branny 30% vs Cizek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Branny -2 · Cizek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Branny) · live re-read · sealed at 38% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Branny form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBranny 1.67 / Cizek 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Branny)-0.4pp
TT Cup · #13094842
Branny1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 62 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it80% 39 of 49
Cizek2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 72 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back19% 18 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBranny1wins
AwayCizek4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderCizek leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrannyn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayCizek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Branny1Cizek4n = 5Cizek took 4 of 5
S2Branny4Cizek1n = 5Branny took 4 of 5
S3Branny3Cizek2n = 5Branny took 3 of 5
S4Branny0Cizek4n = 4Cizek took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away360%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricBrannyCizekB − CBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match38.041.0−3.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrannyCizekBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 327 vs 222 / 46551.7%47.7%169 / 327 vs 222 / 465Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrannyBranny 1.67/Cizek 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.4%
Branny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 7 · 19:10D. Branny—1211113A. Cizek—10870
LMay 18 · 21:25D. Branny—912751A. Cizek—111011113
LMay 18 · 18:45D. Branny—10612111A. Cizek—121110133
LJan 9 · 18:40D. Branny—811881A. Cizek—11611113
LJan 3 · 20:10D. Branny—121112862A. Cizek—1461011113
D. Branny10
LSep 7 · 20:10T. Molin1.571111113D. Branny2.253990WSep 7 · 19:10D. Branny2.101211113A. Cizek1.6710870LSep 7 · 17:40A. Kanak1.531111113D. Branny2.384990WSep 1 · 20:45J. Przybyla1.738750D. Branny2.001111113LSep 1 · 20:15A. Kanak1.571211123D. Branny2.25109100WSep 1 · 19:15D. Branny2.0011118113J. Travnicek1.73781161LSep 1 · 17:45J. Przybyla1.67116811123D. Branny2.10611119102WAug 21 · 08:48L. Lasota1.6110760D. Branny2.201211113LAug 21 · 07:40D. Branny1.7311119772A. Kanak2.00791111113LAug 21 · 06:40D. Branny1.6111181152L. Kantor2.20116116113
A. Cizek10
LSep 7 · 19:40A. Kanak1.731111113A. Cizek2.009860LSep 7 · 19:10D. Branny2.101211113A. Cizek1.6710870WSep 7 · 18:10A. Cizek1.7312119123T. Molin2.0010711101WSep 5 · 20:58K. Kleprlik1.53118581A. Cizek2.3871111113LSep 5 · 19:45K. Kleprlik1.611111113A. Cizek2.208670LSep 5 · 19:15I. Heuman1.73128116183A. Cizek2.001011611162LSep 5 · 18:15A. Cizek1.571010111192T. Lysek2.25121259113LSep 4 · 08:48A. Cizek1.5381341242L. Lasota2.3811111110113WSep 4 · 07:45A. Cizek1.80911711113L. Lasota1.9111611472LSep 4 · 06:45A. Cizek2.001112491T. Kindl1.7381411113
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