TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13100833
Played Sep 8Finished
Ales Cizek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115118711411911
Jan Lisztwan
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingAles Cizek above · Jan Lisztwan below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 88 set 5, 9-11
88 points played in total.
H2H Ales Cizek 1–0 Jan Lisztwan Jan Lisztwan has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Cizek beat Lisztwan 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lisztwan)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lisztwan form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 1.91 / Lisztwan 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lisztwan)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13100833
Cizek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 73 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back19% 19 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 53
Lisztwan1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 21 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it68% 17 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeCizek1wins
AwayLisztwan0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderCizek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricCizekLisztwanC − LBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match48.043.0+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekLisztwanBasisWin rate · lifetime224 / 469 vs 44 / 7547.8%58.7%224 / 469 vs 44 / 75Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LisztwanCizek 1.91/Lisztwan 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lisztwan · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lisztwan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 8 · 19:15A. Cizek—1141111113J. Lisztwan—71151372
A. Cizek10
LSep 8 · 20:15J. Krupnik1.531111113A. Cizek2.385970WSep 8 · 19:15A. Cizek2.381141111113J. Lisztwan1.5371151372LSep 8 · 17:45D. Skulina1.40114119113A. Cizek2.7571161192WSep 7 · 20:40D. Branny1.671166131A. Cizek2.1041111153LSep 7 · 19:40A. Kanak1.731111113A. Cizek2.009860LSep 7 · 19:10D. Branny2.101211113A. Cizek1.6710870WSep 7 · 18:10A. Cizek1.7312119123T. Molin2.0010711101WSep 5 · 20:58K. Kleprlik1.53118581A. Cizek2.3871111113LSep 5 · 19:45K. Kleprlik1.611111113A. Cizek2.208670LSep 5 · 19:15I. Heuman1.73128116183A. Cizek2.001011611162
J. Lisztwan10
WSep 8 · 19:45D. Skulina2.0012870J. Lisztwan1.731411113LSep 8 · 19:15A. Cizek2.381141111113J. Lisztwan1.5371151372LSep 8 · 18:15J. Lisztwan1.831061151J. Krupnik1.8312119113WJul 23 · 16:55B. Moravec1.73811841J. Lisztwan2.0011611113LJul 23 · 15:45B. Moravec2.001111113J. Lisztwan1.737740LJul 23 · 15:15M. Mikolasik2.201111113J. Lisztwan1.618960LJul 23 · 14:15J. Lisztwan1.5010131181K. Kleprlik2.5012157113LJul 7 · 17:15J. Lisztwan1.47911861B. Mrowetz2.3911511113WJul 7 · 15:45J. Lisztwan1.41119175113J. Krupnik2.70711151182WJul 7 · 14:45J. Lisztwan1.75111113123M. Macurak1.988915101
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