TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12287489
Played Jul 23Finished
Jan Lisztwan
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10121315117811––
Kamil Kleprlik
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKamil Kleprlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Lisztwan above · Kamil Kleprlik below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 87 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Kamil Kleprlik at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Jan Lisztwan 2–0 Kamil Kleprlik Kamil Kleprlik has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:50What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Lisztwan
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Lisztwan 1691 vs Kleprlik 1659
Lisztwan
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lisztwan 60% vs Kleprlik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lisztwan 30% vs Kleprlik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lisztwan -1 · Kleprlik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lisztwan) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kleprlik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLisztwan 1.50 / Kleprlik 2.50
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kleprlik)+8.5pp
TT Cup · #12287489
Lisztwan1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 21 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it68% 17 of 25
Kleprlik2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog50% won 68 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back35% 28 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeLisztwan2wins
AwayKleprlik0wins
Lisztwan leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home2
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricLisztwanKleprlikL − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match35.025.5+9.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLisztwanKleprlikBasisWin rate · lifetime42 / 68 vs 203 / 40161.8%50.6%42 / 68 vs 203 / 401Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LisztwanLisztwan 1.50/Kleprlik 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lisztwan · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kleprlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WApr 21 · 17:15J. Lisztwan—1111113K. Kleprlik—3980
WApr 21 · 13:45J. Lisztwan—1212133K. Kleprlik—1010110
J. Lisztwan10
WSep 8 · 19:45D. Skulina2.0012870J. Lisztwan1.731411113LSep 8 · 19:15A. Cizek2.381141111113J. Lisztwan1.5371151372LSep 8 · 18:15J. Lisztwan1.831061151J. Krupnik1.8312119113WJul 23 · 16:55B. Moravec1.73811841J. Lisztwan2.0011611113LJul 23 · 15:45B. Moravec2.001111113J. Lisztwan1.737740LJul 23 · 15:15M. Mikolasik2.201111113J. Lisztwan1.618960LJul 7 · 17:15J. Lisztwan1.47911861B. Mrowetz2.3911511113WJul 7 · 15:45J. Lisztwan1.41119175113J. Krupnik2.70711151182WJul 7 · 14:45J. Lisztwan1.75111113123M. Macurak1.988915101WJul 7 · 13:45J. Lisztwan1.521111123B. Mrowetz2.2758100
K. Kleprlik10
LSep 5 · 20:58K. Kleprlik1.53118581A. Cizek2.3871111113WSep 5 · 19:45K. Kleprlik1.611111113A. Cizek2.208670WSep 5 · 18:45K. Kleprlik1.53111176133T. Lysek2.38571111112LSep 5 · 17:45K. Kleprlik2.006131291I. Heuman1.73111114113LSep 4 · 21:10D. Skulina1.5761111153K. Kleprlik2.251177131WSep 4 · 20:15K. Kleprlik1.671111113J. Travnicek2.108590WSep 4 · 18:45I. Heuman1.809111410122K. Kleprlik1.911141212143LSep 4 · 18:15D. Skulina1.6161114113K. Kleprlik2.201141291WSep 4 · 16:39F. Chaloupka1.615131291K. Kleprlik2.20111114113WSep 4 · 16:15D. Skulina1.6196100K. Kleprlik2.201111123
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