TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12287370
Played Jul 23Finished
Borek Moravec
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117114––––
Jan Lisztwan
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:33 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeBorek Moravec to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBorek Moravec above · Jan Lisztwan below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 51 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Borek Moravec at 55.3%
51 points played in total.
H2H Borek Moravec 7–5 Jan Lisztwan Jan Lisztwan has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:33What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lisztwan
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Moravec
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1733 vs Lisztwan 1634
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 40% vs Lisztwan 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 40% vs Lisztwan 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec -3 · Lisztwan -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Lisztwan) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lisztwan form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 2.00 / Lisztwan 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Lisztwan)+1.0pp
TT Cup · #12287370
Moravec2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 45 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back34% 19 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Lisztwan1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 21 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it68% 17 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec7wins
AwayLisztwan3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMoravec leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec66.7%2 of 3
AwayLisztwan28.6%2 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec3Lisztwan7n = 10Lisztwan took 7 of 10
S2Moravec5Lisztwan5n = 10split evenly
S3Moravec6Lisztwan4n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S4Moravec6Lisztwan2n = 8Moravec took 6 of 8
S5Moravec4Lisztwan1n = 5Moravec took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecLisztwanM − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match43.238.3+4.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecLisztwanBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 367 vs 42 / 7154.2%59.2%199 / 367 vs 42 / 71Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LisztwanMoravec 2.00/Lisztwan 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Lisztwan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 23 · 15:45B. Moravec—1111113J. Lisztwan—7740
WJun 16 · 15:40B. Moravec—8111112113J. Lisztwan—116131092
WMay 28 · 16:45B. Moravec—61111113J. Lisztwan—111821
WMay 28 · 14:40B. Moravec—116411113J. Lisztwan—51111292
WMay 12 · 15:40B. Moravec—9101114113J. Lisztwan—111241282
WApr 29 · 17:09B. Moravec—91111113J. Lisztwan—117311
LApr 29 · 13:40B. Moravec—111012972J. Lisztwan—6121011113
LApr 14 · 17:10B. Moravec—991281J. Lisztwan—111110113
WApr 14 · 15:10B. Moravec—717411113J. Lisztwan—111511892
LMar 18 · 16:45B. Moravec—95160J. Lisztwan—1111183
B. Moravec10
WSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113LSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec1.4436111172F. Chaloupka2.63111159113LSep 6 · 05:40B. Moravec1.806950D. Stusek1.911111113WAug 30 · 09:19B. Moravec1.44119911113J. Skvrna2.6361111462WAug 30 · 07:40B. Moravec1.44831112113F. Chaloupka2.63111181032WAug 30 · 06:40B. Moravec1.44111111113J. Skvrna2.63139431WAug 30 · 05:40B. Moravec1.50117119113J. Skalicky2.5051121172LAug 25 · 16:55J. Rak—116113113B. Moravec—61141182LAug 25 · 16:15J. Rak1.8311119113B. Moravec1.83691171
J. Lisztwan10
WSep 8 · 19:45D. Skulina2.0012870J. Lisztwan1.731411113LSep 8 · 19:15A. Cizek2.381141111113J. Lisztwan1.5371151372LSep 8 · 18:15J. Lisztwan1.831061151J. Krupnik1.8312119113WJul 23 · 16:55B. Moravec1.73811841J. Lisztwan2.0011611113LJul 23 · 15:15M. Mikolasik2.201111113J. Lisztwan1.618960LJul 23 · 14:15J. Lisztwan1.5010131181K. Kleprlik2.5012157113LJul 7 · 17:15J. Lisztwan1.47911861B. Mrowetz2.3911511113WJul 7 · 15:45J. Lisztwan1.41119175113J. Krupnik2.70711151182WJul 7 · 14:45J. Lisztwan1.75111113123M. Macurak1.988915101WJul 7 · 13:45J. Lisztwan1.521111123B. Mrowetz2.2758100
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