TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13098080
Played Sep 8Finished
Jan Krupnik
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115119117––––
Ales Cizek
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:50 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeJan Krupnik to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Ales Cizek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 54 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Jan Krupnik at 63.6%
54 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 9–8 Ales Cizek Ales Cizek has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:50What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Krupnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-8 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1563 vs Cizek 1496
Krupnik
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 40% vs Cizek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 50% vs Cizek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik -1 · Cizek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Krupnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupnik form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 1.53 / Cizek 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Krupnik)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13098080
Krupnik1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 152 of 278
Up 2–0, closes it96% 68 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it72% 109 of 151
Cizek2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 73 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back19% 19 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik4wins
AwayCizek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCizek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik60%3 of 5
AwayCizek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik5Cizek5n = 10split evenly
S2Krupnik6Cizek4n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S3Krupnik3Cizek7n = 10Cizek took 7 of 10
S4Krupnik4Cizek5n = 9Cizek took 5 of 9
S5Krupnik2Cizek3n = 5Cizek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikCizekK − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.642.3−0.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikCizekBasisWin rate · lifetime438 / 855 vs 224 / 46851.2%47.9%438 / 855 vs 224 / 468Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikKrupnik 1.53/Cizek 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 8 · 07:45J. Krupnik—811571A. Cizek—11511113
LJul 9 · 07:10J. Krupnik—11911672A. Cizek—611911113
WJul 3 · 19:40J. Krupnik—1112119113A. Cizek—91481192
WJun 14 · 12:15J. Krupnik—11119113A. Cizek—581181
LJun 6 · 16:50J. Krupnik—71161452A. Cizek—1131112113
LJun 6 · 16:15J. Krupnik—119991A. Cizek—91111113
LJun 3 · 18:15J. Krupnik—101211752A. Cizek—1210611113
WApr 30 · 17:45J. Krupnik—11116113A. Cizek—871171
LApr 10 · 06:40J. Krupnik—61290A. Cizek—1114113
WMar 28 · 19:45J. Krupnik—7111011143A. Cizek—115125122
J. Krupnik10
WSep 8 · 21:15D. Skulina1.7357110J. Krupnik2.001111133LSep 8 · 18:45D. Skulina1.801211143J. Krupnik1.91104120WSep 8 · 18:15J. Lisztwan1.831061151J. Krupnik1.8312119113WSep 7 · 20:45R. Sedlacek1.8311690J. Krupnik1.831311113LSep 7 · 19:45D. Skulina1.801111113J. Krupnik1.917950LSep 7 · 19:15R. Sedlacek1.91121176123J. Krupnik1.801061111102WSep 7 · 18:15J. Krupnik1.73915115113J. Travnicek2.00111391162WSep 5 · 12:40J. Krupnik1.3611711113E. Precek3.00911261LSep 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.67111177113J. Krupnik2.1069111152WSep 5 · 11:15E. Precek2.107515101J. Krupnik1.67111113123
A. Cizek10
LSep 8 · 20:45A. Cizek1.9111117492J. Lisztwan1.80581111113WSep 8 · 19:15A. Cizek2.381141111113J. Lisztwan1.5371151372LSep 8 · 17:45D. Skulina1.40114119113A. Cizek2.7571161192WSep 7 · 20:40D. Branny1.671166131A. Cizek2.1041111153LSep 7 · 19:40A. Kanak1.731111113A. Cizek2.009860LSep 7 · 19:10D. Branny2.101211113A. Cizek1.6710870WSep 7 · 18:10A. Cizek1.7312119123T. Molin2.0010711101WSep 5 · 20:58K. Kleprlik1.53118581A. Cizek2.3871111113LSep 5 · 19:45K. Kleprlik1.611111113A. Cizek2.208670LSep 5 · 19:15I. Heuman1.73128116183A. Cizek2.001011611162
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