TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049616
Played Aug 31Finished
Nikita Hoshko
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118311115115––
Denys Shcherbak
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:57 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeDenys Shcherbak to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingNikita Hoshko above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 65 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Denys Shcherbak at 58.9%
65 points played in total.
H2H Nikita Hoshko 3–4 Denys Shcherbak Nikita Hoshko has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:57What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Shcherbak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hoshko 1631 vs Shcherbak 1729
Shcherbak
Wrong
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hoshko 20% vs Shcherbak 80%
Shcherbak
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hoshko 30% vs Shcherbak 60%
Shcherbak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hoshko -4 · Shcherbak -1
Hoshko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Shcherbak) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoshko 2.20 / Shcherbak 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Shcherbak)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13049616
Hoshko2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog56% won 9 of 16
Down 0–1, comes back40% 4 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back20% 1 of 5
Shcherbak1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 150 of 256
Up 2–0, closes it92% 85 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it76% 117 of 154
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeHoshko3wins
AwayShcherbak4wins
3 of 7 to a deciderShcherbak leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoshko100%3 of 3
AwayShcherbak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hoshko3Shcherbak4n = 7Shcherbak took 4 of 7
S2Hoshko2Shcherbak5n = 7Shcherbak took 5 of 7
S3Hoshko2Shcherbak5n = 7Shcherbak took 5 of 7
S4Hoshko3Shcherbak2n = 5Hoshko took 3 of 5
S5Hoshko2Shcherbak1n = 3Hoshko took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricHoshkoShcherbakH − SBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match35.138.6−3.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoshkoShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime26 / 54 vs 309 / 59648.2%51.9%26 / 54 vs 309 / 596Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakHoshko 2.20/Shcherbak 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hoshko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 25 · 09:55N. Hoshko—7960D. Shcherbak—1111113
LAug 24 · 11:55N. Hoshko—6860D. Shcherbak—1111113
WAug 18 · 04:35N. Hoshko—1191111113D. Shcherbak—71161352
WAug 17 · 17:35N. Hoshko—11511113D. Shcherbak—211981
LJul 27 · 01:30N. Hoshko—81161162D. Shcherbak—118115113
WJul 13 · 24:00N. Hoshko—113711113D. Shcherbak—91111892
LJul 10 · 13:35N. Hoshko—411761D. Shcherbak—11511113
N. Hoshko10
WSep 4 · 14:35N. Hoshko1.501111133Y. Kravets2.5077110LSep 4 · 12:35N. Hoshko1.7311128782O. Napirko2.008101111113LAug 31 · 16:25N. Hoshko2.38741151D. Pesternikov1.5311118113LAug 31 · 14:55N. Hoshko2.2010850S. Rak1.611211113LAug 31 · 11:55N. Hoshko2.104450I. Romaniak1.671111113LAug 28 · 03:00N. Hoshko1.839950I. Romaniak1.831111113LAug 28 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.911111113N. Hoshko1.808890LAug 27 · 23:00D. Pesternikov1.731111113N. Hoshko2.008840WAug 27 · 22:00N. Hoshko1.6781111113R. Haiseniuk2.10114591LAug 27 · 21:00V. Plishylo2.381211113N. Hoshko1.5310990
D. Shcherbak10
LSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113WSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113WSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113WSep 5 · 06:05R. Haiseniuk2.636630D. Shcherbak1.441111113LSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891
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