TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022746
Played Aug 28Finished
Nikita Hoshko
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911511––––
Ivan Romaniak
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeNikita Hoshko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingNikita Hoshko above · Ivan Romaniak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 56 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Nikita Hoshko at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Nikita Hoshko 2–4 Ivan Romaniak Nikita Hoshko has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:00What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Romaniak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Romaniak
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hoshko 1657 vs Romaniak 1691
Romaniak
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hoshko 40% vs Romaniak 60%
Romaniak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hoshko 50% vs Romaniak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hoshko -2 · Romaniak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Romaniak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hoshko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoshko 1.83 / Romaniak 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Romaniak)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13022746
Hoshko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Romaniak1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeHoshko2wins
AwayRomaniak4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderRomaniak leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoshko66.7%2 of 3
AwayRomaniak100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hoshko3Romaniak3n = 6split evenly
S2Hoshko2Romaniak4n = 6Romaniak took 4 of 6
S3Hoshko1Romaniak5n = 6Romaniak took 5 of 6
S4Hoshko4Romaniak0n = 4Hoshko took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricHoshkoRomaniakH − RBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match38.741.0−2.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoshkoRomaniakBasisWin rate · lifetime26 / 52 vs 222 / 49150%45.2%26 / 52 vs 222 / 491Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RomaniakHoshko 1.83/Romaniak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Romaniak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Romaniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 25 · 04:25N. Hoshko—11411113I. Romaniak—911981
LAug 24 · 17:25N. Hoshko—114111172I. Romaniak—1112138113
LAug 18 · 10:05N. Hoshko—91090I. Romaniak—1112113
WAug 17 · 13:35N. Hoshko—11118113I. Romaniak—731161
LJul 26 · 22:00N. Hoshko—87160I. Romaniak—1111183
LJul 13 · 01:00N. Hoshko—119131172I. Romaniak—711159113
N. Hoshko10
WSep 4 · 14:35N. Hoshko1.501111133Y. Kravets2.5077110LSep 4 · 12:35N. Hoshko1.7311128782O. Napirko2.008101111113LAug 31 · 16:25N. Hoshko2.38741151D. Pesternikov1.5311118113LAug 31 · 14:55N. Hoshko2.2010850S. Rak1.611211113WAug 31 · 13:25N. Hoshko2.2011311113D. Shcherbak1.61811551LAug 31 · 11:55N. Hoshko2.104450I. Romaniak1.671111113LAug 28 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.911111113N. Hoshko1.808890LAug 27 · 23:00D. Pesternikov1.731111113N. Hoshko2.008840WAug 27 · 22:00N. Hoshko1.6781111113R. Haiseniuk2.10114591LAug 27 · 21:00V. Plishylo2.381211113N. Hoshko1.5310990
I. Romaniak10
WSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113LSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370LSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181LSep 1 · 08:25D. Shcherbak1.67911185113I. Romaniak2.10118161172WSep 1 · 06:55S. Rak1.507880I. Romaniak2.501111113WSep 1 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.44108100I. Romaniak2.631211123WSep 1 · 04:25I. Kozachuk1.6791181232I. Romaniak2.101181110113WAug 31 · 11:55N. Hoshko2.104450I. Romaniak1.671111113
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