TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049520
Played Aug 31Finished
Nikita Hoshko
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711411118511––
Denys Pesternikov
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:33 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingNikita Hoshko above · Denys Pesternikov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 68 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 60.5%
68 points played in total.
H2H Nikita Hoshko 3–3 Denys Pesternikov Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:33What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Pesternikov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hoshko 1640 vs Pesternikov 1901
Pesternikov
Correct
both rated, 262 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hoshko 20% vs Pesternikov 60%
Pesternikov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hoshko 30% vs Pesternikov 70%
Pesternikov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hoshko -1 · Pesternikov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Pesternikov) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hoshko form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoshko 2.38 / Pesternikov 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Pesternikov)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13049520
Hoshko2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog56% won 9 of 16
Down 0–1, comes back40% 4 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back20% 1 of 5
Pesternikov1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 223 of 331
Up 2–0, closes it95% 122 of 128
Up 1–0, closes it85% 175 of 207
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeHoshko3wins
AwayPesternikov3wins
4 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoshkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPesternikov50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hoshko2Pesternikov4n = 6Pesternikov took 4 of 6
S2Hoshko3Pesternikov3n = 6split evenly
S3Hoshko2Pesternikov4n = 6Pesternikov took 4 of 6
S4Hoshko3Pesternikov3n = 6split evenly
S5Hoshko3Pesternikov1n = 4Hoshko took 3 of 4
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricHoshkoPesternikovH − PBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match42.546.2−3.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoshkoPesternikovBasisWin rate · lifetime27 / 56 vs 590 / 110648.2%53.4%27 / 56 vs 590 / 1106Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovHoshko 2.38/Pesternikov 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pesternikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 24 · 18:25N. Hoshko—118612113D. Pesternikov—411111082
LAug 18 · 11:05N. Hoshko—111169102D. Pesternikov—991111123
WAug 17 · 15:35N. Hoshko—671111143D. Pesternikov—111189122
LJul 27 · 02:30N. Hoshko—571131D. Pesternikov—11117113
LJul 12 · 22:30N. Hoshko—1411891D. Pesternikov—16711113
WJun 20 · 11:35N. Hoshko—211712113D. Pesternikov—116111072
N. Hoshko10
WSep 4 · 14:35N. Hoshko1.501111133Y. Kravets2.5077110LSep 4 · 12:35N. Hoshko1.7311128782O. Napirko2.008101111113LAug 31 · 14:55N. Hoshko2.2010850S. Rak1.611211113WAug 31 · 13:25N. Hoshko2.2011311113D. Shcherbak1.61811551LAug 31 · 11:55N. Hoshko2.104450I. Romaniak1.671111113LAug 28 · 03:00N. Hoshko1.839950I. Romaniak1.831111113LAug 28 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.911111113N. Hoshko1.808890LAug 27 · 23:00D. Pesternikov1.731111113N. Hoshko2.008840WAug 27 · 22:00N. Hoshko1.6781111113R. Haiseniuk2.10114591LAug 27 · 21:00V. Plishylo2.381211113N. Hoshko1.5310990
D. Pesternikov10
WSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113WSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 4 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.221291111113R. Lazebnyi4.00101141342WSep 4 · 24:30S. Rak2.50615231D. Pesternikov1.50111311113WSep 3 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010450WSep 3 · 22:30I. Kozachuk2.10711581D. Pesternikov1.6711611113WAug 27 · 23:00D. Pesternikov1.731111113N. Hoshko2.008840
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