TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022694
Played Aug 27Finished
Denys Pesternikov
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118118114––––
Nikita Hoshko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:06 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Nikita Hoshko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 53 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 56.5%
53 points played in total.
H2H Denys Pesternikov 3–3 Nikita Hoshko Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:06What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pesternikov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1919 vs Hoshko 1677
Pesternikov
Correct
both rated, 242 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 80% vs Hoshko 40%
Pesternikov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 60% vs Hoshko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov +2 · Hoshko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Pesternikov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesternikov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 1.73 / Hoshko 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Pesternikov)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13022694
Pesternikov1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 221 of 332
Up 2–0, closes it95% 122 of 128
Up 1–0, closes it84% 175 of 209
Hoshko2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog60% won 9 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back44% 4 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomePesternikov3wins
AwayHoshko3wins
4 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesternikov50%2 of 4
AwayHoshkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesternikov4Hoshko2n = 6Pesternikov took 4 of 6
S2Pesternikov3Hoshko3n = 6split evenly
S3Pesternikov4Hoshko2n = 6Pesternikov took 4 of 6
S4Pesternikov3Hoshko3n = 6split evenly
S5Pesternikov1Hoshko3n = 4Hoshko took 3 of 4
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away350%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricPesternikovHoshkoP − HBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match46.242.5+3.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovHoshkoBasisWin rate · lifetime595 / 1115 vs 26 / 5053.4%52%595 / 1115 vs 26 / 50Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovPesternikov 1.73/Hoshko 2.00
Hit
What we said
56.5%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pesternikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 24 · 18:25D. Pesternikov—411111082N. Hoshko—118612113
WAug 18 · 11:05D. Pesternikov—991111123N. Hoshko—111169102
LAug 17 · 15:35D. Pesternikov—111189122N. Hoshko—671111143
WJul 27 · 02:30D. Pesternikov—11117113N. Hoshko—571131
WJul 12 · 22:30D. Pesternikov—16711113N. Hoshko—1411891
LJun 20 · 11:35D. Pesternikov—116111072N. Hoshko—211712113
D. Pesternikov10
WSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113WSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 4 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.221291111113R. Lazebnyi4.00101141342WSep 4 · 24:30S. Rak2.50615231D. Pesternikov1.50111311113WSep 3 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010450WSep 3 · 22:30I. Kozachuk2.10711581D. Pesternikov1.6711611113WSep 3 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.201111113R. Haiseniuk4.339720
N. Hoshko10
WSep 4 · 14:35N. Hoshko1.501111133Y. Kravets2.5077110LSep 4 · 12:35N. Hoshko1.7311128782O. Napirko2.008101111113LAug 31 · 16:25N. Hoshko2.38741151D. Pesternikov1.5311118113LAug 31 · 14:55N. Hoshko2.2010850S. Rak1.611211113WAug 31 · 13:25N. Hoshko2.2011311113D. Shcherbak1.61811551LAug 31 · 11:55N. Hoshko2.104450I. Romaniak1.671111113LAug 28 · 03:00N. Hoshko1.839950I. Romaniak1.831111113LAug 28 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.911111113N. Hoshko1.808890WAug 27 · 22:00N. Hoshko1.6781111113R. Haiseniuk2.10114591LAug 27 · 21:00V. Plishylo2.381211113N. Hoshko1.5310990
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