TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049436
Played Aug 31Finished
Nikita Hoshko
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012811511––––
Serhii Rak
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:05 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingNikita Hoshko above · Serhii Rak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 57 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Serhii Rak at 60.9%
57 points played in total.
H2H Nikita Hoshko 3–4 Serhii Rak Nikita Hoshko has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:05What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hoshko 1647 vs Rak 1844
Rak
Correct
both rated, 197 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hoshko 20% vs Rak 100%
Rak
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hoshko 30% vs Rak 90%
Rak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hoshko +1 · Rak +5
Rak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Rak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoshko 2.20 / Rak 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Rak)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13049436
Hoshko2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog56% won 9 of 16
Down 0–1, comes back40% 4 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back20% 1 of 5
Rak1.61
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 270 of 427
Up 2–0, closes it92% 133 of 144
Up 1–0, closes it81% 189 of 234
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeHoshko3wins
AwayRak4wins
3 of 7 to a deciderRak leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoshkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayRak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hoshko2Rak5n = 7Rak took 5 of 7
S2Hoshko2Rak5n = 7Rak took 5 of 7
S3Hoshko3Rak4n = 7Rak took 4 of 7
S4Hoshko3Rak1n = 4Hoshko took 3 of 4
S5Hoshko2Rak1n = 3Hoshko took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricHoshkoRakH − RBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match33.736.9−3.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoshkoRakBasisWin rate · lifetime27 / 55 vs 485 / 88449.1%54.9%27 / 55 vs 485 / 884Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakHoshko 2.20/Rak 1.61
Hit
What we said
60.9%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 25 · 06:25N. Hoshko—1111113S. Rak—3450
LAug 24 · 13:55N. Hoshko—761181S. Rak—11116113
LAug 18 · 06:35N. Hoshko—5240S. Rak—1111113
LAug 17 · 19:05N. Hoshko—101131182S. Rak—129118113
WJul 26 · 20:00N. Hoshko—531111113S. Rak—11117872
LJul 24 · 17:05N. Hoshko—9890S. Rak—1111113
WJul 13 · 02:00N. Hoshko—117911123S. Rak—711117102
N. Hoshko10
WSep 4 · 14:35N. Hoshko1.501111133Y. Kravets2.5077110LSep 4 · 12:35N. Hoshko1.7311128782O. Napirko2.008101111113LAug 31 · 16:25N. Hoshko2.38741151D. Pesternikov1.5311118113WAug 31 · 13:25N. Hoshko2.2011311113D. Shcherbak1.61811551LAug 31 · 11:55N. Hoshko2.104450I. Romaniak1.671111113LAug 28 · 03:00N. Hoshko1.839950I. Romaniak1.831111113LAug 28 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.911111113N. Hoshko1.808890LAug 27 · 23:00D. Pesternikov1.731111113N. Hoshko2.008840WAug 27 · 22:00N. Hoshko1.6781111113R. Haiseniuk2.10114591LAug 27 · 21:00V. Plishylo2.381211113N. Hoshko1.5310990
S. Rak10
WSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113LSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370WSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671WSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak1.5791111113I. Kozachuk2.25117361LSep 4 · 24:30S. Rak2.50615231D. Pesternikov1.50111311113LSep 3 · 23:00S. Rak1.301111771R. Haiseniuk3.4071311113WSep 3 · 21:30S. Rak1.6711511113D. Shcherbak2.10811481WSep 3 · 20:00S. Rak1.33101112113R. Lazebnyi3.251251091
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