TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043824
Played Aug 30Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119611118611711
Serhii Hohenko
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:45 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeSerhii Hohenko to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Serhii Hohenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 91 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Serhii Hohenko at 62.4%
91 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 3–7 Serhii Hohenko Dmytro Neborak has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:45What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Hohenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Hohenko
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1720 vs Hohenko 1708
Neborak
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 60% vs Hohenko 20%
Neborak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 40% vs Hohenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak +1 · Hohenko -4
Hohenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Hohenko) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hohenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 2.25 / Hohenko 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Hohenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13043824
Neborak2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 117 of 338
Down 0–1, comes back17% 35 of 204
Down 0–2, comes back10% 13 of 131
Hohenko1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 17 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeborak3wins
AwayHohenko7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHohenko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborak75%3 of 4
AwayHohenko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak4Hohenko6n = 10Hohenko took 6 of 10
S2Neborak6Hohenko4n = 10Neborak took 6 of 10
S3Neborak2Hohenko8n = 10Hohenko took 8 of 10
S4Neborak4Hohenko5n = 9Hohenko took 5 of 9
S5Neborak1Hohenko2n = 3Hohenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeborakHohenkoN − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.842.0−6.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakHohenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime298 / 843 vs 22 / 4535.4%48.9%298 / 843 vs 22 / 45Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HohenkoNeborak 2.25/Hohenko 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Hohenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hohenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 17:30D. Neborak—11115133S. Hohenko—7611111
LAug 29 · 12:30D. Neborak—511111272S. Hohenko—1191310113
LAug 16 · 07:30D. Neborak—911181S. Hohenko—11811113
LAug 16 · 06:30D. Neborak—11111191S. Hohenko—13913113
LAug 15 · 17:30D. Neborak—211331S. Hohenko—11711113
LAug 15 · 12:30D. Neborak—11761252S. Hohenko—9111110113
WAug 2 · 09:30D. Neborak—11811133S. Hohenko—8117111
WAug 2 · 04:30D. Neborak—1110114113S. Hohenko—21261152
LAug 1 · 16:02D. Neborak—4161021S. Hohenko—11141293
LAug 1 · 13:30D. Neborak—9820S. Hohenko—1111113
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191LSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163
S. Hohenko10
WAug 30 · 09:30S. Hohenko1.2511117113D. Neborak3.75501161WAug 30 · 08:30S. Hohenko1.501211123O. Shkurupii2.50107100WAug 30 · 08:00S. Hohenko3.50811118113O. Zhurba1.2811571182LAug 30 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.281111113S. Hohenko3.506680WAug 30 · 06:00O. Shkurupii2.387780S. Hohenko1.531111113LAug 29 · 17:30D. Neborak2.5011115133S. Hohenko1.507611111LAug 29 · 16:00O. Shkurupii2.75111110123S. Hohenko1.403812101LAug 29 · 15:00S. Hohenko3.40711111122O. Zhurba1.30111367113LAug 29 · 14:00O. Zhurba1.3011411103S. Hohenko3.40911331WAug 29 · 13:30S. Hohenko1.571311123O. Shkurupii2.25113100
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