TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037768
Played Aug 29Finished
Oleksandr Shkurupii
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11311810121210––
Serhii Hohenko
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:43 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Hohenko to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Shkurupii above · Serhii Hohenko below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 77 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Serhii Hohenko at 58.9%
77 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Shkurupii 4–5 Serhii Hohenko Oleksandr Shkurupii has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:43What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Hohenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shkurupii 1696 vs Hohenko 1780
Hohenko
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shkurupii 20% vs Hohenko 40%
Hohenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shkurupii 30% vs Hohenko 50%
Hohenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shkurupii -4 · Hohenko -2
Shkurupii
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Hohenko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hohenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShkurupii 2.75 / Hohenko 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Hohenko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13037768
Shkurupii2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 33 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back10% 7 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 47
Hohenko1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 17 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeShkurupii4wins
AwayHohenko5wins
1 of 9 to a deciderHohenko leads 5–4, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShkurupii100%4 of 4
AwayHohenko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shkurupii4Hohenko5n = 9Hohenko took 5 of 9
S2Shkurupii3Hohenko6n = 9Hohenko took 6 of 9
S3Shkurupii4Hohenko5n = 9Hohenko took 5 of 9
S4Shkurupii2Hohenko3n = 5Hohenko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricShkurupiiHohenkoS − HBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match35.337.9−2.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShkurupiiHohenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime373 / 769 vs 22 / 4348.5%51.2%373 / 769 vs 22 / 43Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HohenkoShkurupii 2.75/Hohenko 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.7%
Hohenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Shkurupii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 29 · 13:30O. Shkurupii—113100S. Hohenko—1311123
WAug 16 · 08:30O. Shkurupii—11513113S. Hohenko—7111181
LAug 16 · 06:00O. Shkurupii—13131081S. Hohenko—151112113
LAug 15 · 16:00O. Shkurupii—512851S. Hohenko—111011113
WAug 15 · 13:30O. Shkurupii—111211113S. Hohenko—614881
LAug 2 · 07:30O. Shkurupii—75100S. Hohenko—1111123
WAug 2 · 06:30O. Shkurupii—1111113S. Hohenko—8970
LAug 1 · 17:29O. Shkurupii—51290S. Hohenko—1114113
WAug 1 · 12:30O. Shkurupii—1191112113S. Hohenko—81151482
O. Shkurupii10
LAug 30 · 10:00O. Zhurba1.331111113O. Shkurupii3.255380LAug 30 · 08:30S. Hohenko1.501211123O. Shkurupii2.50107100LAug 30 · 07:30O. Shkurupii1.67113110D. Neborak2.101115133WAug 30 · 06:30D. Neborak2.25101111131O. Shkurupii1.5712138153LAug 30 · 06:00O. Shkurupii2.387780S. Hohenko1.531111113LAug 30 · 05:00O. Shkurupii3.256560O. Zhurba1.331111113LAug 29 · 17:00O. Shkurupii3.257990O. Zhurba1.331111113LAug 29 · 15:30O. Shkurupii1.5758111122D. Neborak2.25111199103LAug 29 · 14:30D. Neborak2.254111383O. Shkurupii1.571161141LAug 29 · 13:30S. Hohenko1.571311123O. Shkurupii2.25113100
S. Hohenko10
WAug 30 · 09:30S. Hohenko1.2511117113D. Neborak3.75501161WAug 30 · 08:30S. Hohenko1.501211123O. Shkurupii2.50107100WAug 30 · 08:00S. Hohenko3.50811118113O. Zhurba1.2811571182LAug 30 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.281111113S. Hohenko3.506680WAug 30 · 06:00O. Shkurupii2.387780S. Hohenko1.531111113WAug 30 · 04:30D. Neborak2.2511611672S. Hohenko1.57911811113LAug 29 · 17:30D. Neborak2.5011115133S. Hohenko1.507611111LAug 29 · 15:00S. Hohenko3.40711111122O. Zhurba1.30111367113LAug 29 · 14:00O. Zhurba1.3011411103S. Hohenko3.40911331WAug 29 · 13:30S. Hohenko1.571311123O. Shkurupii2.25113100
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