TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037504
Played Aug 29Finished
Oleksandr Shkurupii
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511811119119210
Dmytro Neborak
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:41 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Shkurupii to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Shkurupii above · Dmytro Neborak below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 2-10
Point 87 set 5, 2-10 — our read held Oleksandr Shkurupii at 60.9%
87 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Shkurupii 131–57 Dmytro Neborak Dmytro Neborak has won 57 of their 188 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:41What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Shkurupii
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
131-57 in 188
Shkurupii
Wrong
gap of 74 in 188, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shkurupii 1708 vs Neborak 1689
Shkurupii
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shkurupii 40% vs Neborak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shkurupii 40% vs Neborak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shkurupii -3 · Neborak +1
Shkurupii
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Shkurupii)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shkurupii form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShkurupii 1.57 / Neborak 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Shkurupii)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13037504
Shkurupii1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 91 of 165
Up 2–0, closes it87% 53 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it77% 70 of 91
Neborak2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 117 of 338
Down 0–1, comes back17% 35 of 204
Down 0–2, comes back10% 13 of 131
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShkurupii5wins
AwayNeborak5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShkurupii80%4 of 5
AwayNeborak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shkurupii5Neborak5n = 10split evenly
S2Shkurupii6Neborak4n = 10Shkurupii took 6 of 10
S3Shkurupii4Neborak6n = 10Neborak took 6 of 10
S4Shkurupii2Neborak3n = 5Neborak took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShkurupiiNeborakS − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.034.1−0.1per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShkurupiiNeborakBasisWin rate · lifetime373 / 768 vs 296 / 84048.6%35.2%373 / 768 vs 296 / 840Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.235.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShkurupiiShkurupii 1.57/Neborak 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Shkurupii · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Neborak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 14:30O. Shkurupii—1161141D. Neborak—4111383
WAug 16 · 09:30O. Shkurupii—11117123D. Neborak—6411101
LAug 16 · 04:30O. Shkurupii—851281D. Neborak—111110113
WAug 15 · 15:30O. Shkurupii—1112103D. Neborak—91070
WAug 15 · 14:30O. Shkurupii—1111113D. Neborak—7890
LAug 2 · 08:30O. Shkurupii—6970D. Neborak—1111113
LAug 2 · 06:00O. Shkurupii—9780D. Neborak—1111113
WAug 1 · 15:30O. Shkurupii—10111011113D. Neborak—12912882
WAug 1 · 14:30O. Shkurupii—1111123D. Neborak—87100
LJul 30 · 07:50O. Shkurupii—711891D. Neborak—11811113
O. Shkurupii10
LAug 30 · 10:00O. Zhurba1.331111113O. Shkurupii3.255380LAug 30 · 08:30S. Hohenko1.501211123O. Shkurupii2.50107100LAug 30 · 07:30O. Shkurupii1.67113110D. Neborak2.101115133WAug 30 · 06:30D. Neborak2.25101111131O. Shkurupii1.5712138153LAug 30 · 06:00O. Shkurupii2.387780S. Hohenko1.531111113LAug 30 · 05:00O. Shkurupii3.256560O. Zhurba1.331111113LAug 29 · 17:00O. Shkurupii3.257990O. Zhurba1.331111113WAug 29 · 16:00O. Shkurupii2.75111110123S. Hohenko1.403812101LAug 29 · 14:30D. Neborak2.254111383O. Shkurupii1.571161141LAug 29 · 13:30S. Hohenko1.571311123O. Shkurupii2.25113100
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103WAug 30 · 07:30O. Shkurupii1.67113110D. Neborak2.101115133LAug 30 · 06:30D. Neborak2.25101111131O. Shkurupii1.5712138153WAug 29 · 14:30D. Neborak2.254111383O. Shkurupii1.571161141
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