TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043734
Played Aug 30Finished
Oleksandr Shkurupii
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
11113151113––––
Dmytro Neborak
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Shkurupii to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Shkurupii above · Dmytro Neborak below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 64 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Oleksandr Shkurupii at 60.1%
64 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Shkurupii 132–59 Dmytro Neborak Dmytro Neborak has won 59 of their 191 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:18What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Shkurupii
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
132-59 in 191
Shkurupii
Wrong
gap of 73 in 191, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shkurupii 1670 vs Neborak 1699
Neborak
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shkurupii 40% vs Neborak 20%
Shkurupii
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shkurupii 30% vs Neborak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shkurupii +1 · Neborak -3
Neborak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Shkurupii) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neborak form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShkurupii 1.67 / Neborak 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Shkurupii)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13043734
Shkurupii1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 86 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it86% 49 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it75% 66 of 88
Neborak2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 117 of 339
Down 0–1, comes back17% 34 of 203
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShkurupii4wins
AwayNeborak6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderNeborak leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShkurupii80%4 of 5
AwayNeborak100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shkurupii5Neborak5n = 10split evenly
S2Shkurupii4Neborak6n = 10Neborak took 6 of 10
S3Shkurupii4Neborak6n = 10Neborak took 6 of 10
S4Shkurupii3Neborak2n = 5Shkurupii took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricShkurupiiNeborakS − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.836.0−3.2per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShkurupiiNeborakBasisWin rate · lifetime375 / 777 vs 299 / 84948.3%35.2%375 / 777 vs 299 / 849Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.135.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShkurupiiShkurupii 1.67/Neborak 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Shkurupii · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Neborak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 07:30O. Shkurupii—113110D. Neborak—1115133
WAug 30 · 06:30O. Shkurupii—12138153D. Neborak—101111131
LAug 29 · 15:30O. Shkurupii—58111122D. Neborak—111199103
LAug 29 · 14:30O. Shkurupii—1161141D. Neborak—4111383
WAug 16 · 09:30O. Shkurupii—11117123D. Neborak—6411101
LAug 16 · 04:30O. Shkurupii—851281D. Neborak—111110113
WAug 15 · 15:30O. Shkurupii—1112103D. Neborak—91070
WAug 15 · 14:30O. Shkurupii—1111113D. Neborak—7890
LAug 2 · 08:30O. Shkurupii—6970D. Neborak—1111113
LAug 2 · 06:00O. Shkurupii—9780D. Neborak—1111113
O. Shkurupii10
LAug 30 · 10:00O. Zhurba1.331111113O. Shkurupii3.255380LAug 30 · 08:30S. Hohenko1.501211123O. Shkurupii2.50107100WAug 30 · 06:30D. Neborak2.25101111131O. Shkurupii1.5712138153LAug 30 · 06:00O. Shkurupii2.387780S. Hohenko1.531111113LAug 30 · 05:00O. Shkurupii3.256560O. Zhurba1.331111113LAug 29 · 17:00O. Shkurupii3.257990O. Zhurba1.331111113WAug 29 · 16:00O. Shkurupii2.75111110123S. Hohenko1.403812101LAug 29 · 15:30O. Shkurupii1.5758111122D. Neborak2.25111199103LAug 29 · 14:30D. Neborak2.254111383O. Shkurupii1.571161141LAug 29 · 13:30S. Hohenko1.571311123O. Shkurupii2.25113100
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LAug 30 · 06:30D. Neborak2.25101111131O. Shkurupii1.5712138153WAug 29 · 15:30O. Shkurupii1.5758111122D. Neborak2.25111199103WAug 29 · 14:30D. Neborak2.254111383O. Shkurupii1.571161141
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