TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037635
Played Aug 29Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
411116131184––
Oleksandr Shkurupii
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:51 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Shkurupii to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Oleksandr Shkurupii below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 8-4
Point 68 set 4, 8-4 — our read held Oleksandr Shkurupii at 60.9%
68 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 55–130 Oleksandr Shkurupii Dmytro Neborak has won 55 of their 185 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:51What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Shkurupii
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
55-130 in 185
Shkurupii
Wrong
gap of 75 in 185, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1647 vs Shkurupii 1749
Shkurupii
Wrong
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 20% vs Shkurupii 60%
Shkurupii
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 50% vs Shkurupii 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak -2 · Shkurupii -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Shkurupii)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neborak form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 2.25 / Shkurupii 1.57
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Shkurupii)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13037635
Neborak2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 117 of 338
Down 0–1, comes back17% 35 of 204
Down 0–2, comes back10% 13 of 131
Shkurupii1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 91 of 165
Up 2–0, closes it87% 53 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it77% 70 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeborak4wins
AwayShkurupii6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderShkurupii leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborak66.7%4 of 6
AwayShkurupii100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak6Shkurupii4n = 10Neborak took 6 of 10
S2Neborak4Shkurupii6n = 10Shkurupii took 6 of 10
S3Neborak6Shkurupii4n = 10Neborak took 6 of 10
S4Neborak2Shkurupii2n = 4split evenly
S5Neborak0Shkurupii3n = 3Shkurupii took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeborakShkurupiiN − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.635.2+0.4per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakShkurupiiBasisWin rate · lifetime295 / 839 vs 373 / 76735.2%48.6%295 / 839 vs 373 / 767Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShkurupiiNeborak 2.25/Shkurupii 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Shkurupii · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Neborak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 15 · 15:30D. Neborak—91070O. Shkurupii—1112103
LAug 15 · 14:30D. Neborak—7890O. Shkurupii—1111113
WAug 2 · 08:30D. Neborak—1111113O. Shkurupii—6970
WAug 2 · 06:00D. Neborak—1111113O. Shkurupii—9780
LAug 1 · 15:30D. Neborak—12912882O. Shkurupii—10111011113
LAug 1 · 14:30D. Neborak—87100O. Shkurupii—1111123
WJul 30 · 07:50D. Neborak—11811113O. Shkurupii—711891
LJul 29 · 17:40D. Neborak—91113692O. Shkurupii—1181111113
LJul 29 · 16:30D. Neborak—116101162O. Shkurupii—711128113
WJun 23 · 16:00D. Neborak—1111113O. Shkurupii—4850
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191LSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163
O. Shkurupii10
LAug 30 · 10:00O. Zhurba1.331111113O. Shkurupii3.255380LAug 30 · 08:30S. Hohenko1.501211123O. Shkurupii2.50107100LAug 30 · 07:30O. Shkurupii1.67113110D. Neborak2.101115133WAug 30 · 06:30D. Neborak2.25101111131O. Shkurupii1.5712138153LAug 30 · 06:00O. Shkurupii2.387780S. Hohenko1.531111113LAug 30 · 05:00O. Shkurupii3.256560O. Zhurba1.331111113LAug 29 · 17:00O. Shkurupii3.257990O. Zhurba1.331111113WAug 29 · 16:00O. Shkurupii2.75111110123S. Hohenko1.403812101LAug 29 · 15:30O. Shkurupii1.5758111122D. Neborak2.25111199103LAug 29 · 13:30S. Hohenko1.571311123O. Shkurupii2.25113100
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