TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043837
Played Aug 30Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
101211131181315––
Oleksandr Shkurupii
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:47 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Shkurupii to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Oleksandr Shkurupii below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 93 set 4, 13-15 — our read held Oleksandr Shkurupii at 60.1%
93 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 59–132 Oleksandr Shkurupii Dmytro Neborak has won 59 of their 191 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:47What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Shkurupii
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
59-132 in 191
Shkurupii
Correct
gap of 73 in 191, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1699 vs Shkurupii 1670
Neborak
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 40% vs Shkurupii 20%
Neborak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 40% vs Shkurupii 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak -2 · Shkurupii -3
Shkurupii
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Shkurupii)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shkurupii form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 2.25 / Shkurupii 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Shkurupii)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13043837
Neborak2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 117 of 339
Down 0–1, comes back17% 34 of 203
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 127
Shkurupii1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 86 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it86% 49 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it75% 66 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeborak6wins
AwayShkurupii4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderNeborak leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborak100%5 of 5
AwayShkurupii80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak5Shkurupii5n = 10split evenly
S2Neborak6Shkurupii4n = 10Neborak took 6 of 10
S3Neborak6Shkurupii4n = 10Neborak took 6 of 10
S4Neborak2Shkurupii3n = 5Shkurupii took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeborakShkurupiiN − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.032.8+3.2per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakShkurupiiBasisWin rate · lifetime299 / 849 vs 375 / 77735.2%48.3%299 / 849 vs 375 / 777Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShkurupiiNeborak 2.25/Shkurupii 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Shkurupii · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Shkurupii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 07:30D. Neborak—1115133O. Shkurupii—113110
LAug 30 · 06:30D. Neborak—101111131O. Shkurupii—12138153
WAug 29 · 15:30D. Neborak—111199103O. Shkurupii—58111122
WAug 29 · 14:30D. Neborak—4111383O. Shkurupii—1161141
LAug 16 · 09:30D. Neborak—6411101O. Shkurupii—11117123
WAug 16 · 04:30D. Neborak—111110113O. Shkurupii—851281
LAug 15 · 15:30D. Neborak—91070O. Shkurupii—1112103
LAug 15 · 14:30D. Neborak—7890O. Shkurupii—1111113
WAug 2 · 08:30D. Neborak—1111113O. Shkurupii—6970
WAug 2 · 06:00D. Neborak—1111113O. Shkurupii—9780
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191LSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163
O. Shkurupii10
LAug 30 · 10:00O. Zhurba1.331111113O. Shkurupii3.255380LAug 30 · 08:30S. Hohenko1.501211123O. Shkurupii2.50107100LAug 30 · 07:30O. Shkurupii1.67113110D. Neborak2.101115133LAug 30 · 06:00O. Shkurupii2.387780S. Hohenko1.531111113LAug 30 · 05:00O. Shkurupii3.256560O. Zhurba1.331111113LAug 29 · 17:00O. Shkurupii3.257990O. Zhurba1.331111113WAug 29 · 16:00O. Shkurupii2.75111110123S. Hohenko1.403812101LAug 29 · 15:30O. Shkurupii1.5758111122D. Neborak2.25111199103LAug 29 · 14:30D. Neborak2.254111383O. Shkurupii1.571161141LAug 29 · 13:30S. Hohenko1.571311123O. Shkurupii2.25113100
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