TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037428
Played Aug 29Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171165111311––
Serhii Hohenko
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:21 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Hohenko to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Serhii Hohenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 75 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Serhii Hohenko at 66.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 3–7 Serhii Hohenko Dmytro Neborak has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:21What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hohenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Hohenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1720 vs Hohenko 1708
Neborak
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 40% vs Hohenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 40% vs Hohenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak -1 · Hohenko -3
Hohenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Hohenko) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hohenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 2.50 / Hohenko 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Hohenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13037428
Neborak2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 117 of 338
Down 0–1, comes back17% 35 of 204
Down 0–2, comes back10% 13 of 131
Hohenko1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 17 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeborak3wins
AwayHohenko7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHohenko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborak75%3 of 4
AwayHohenko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak4Hohenko6n = 10Hohenko took 6 of 10
S2Neborak6Hohenko4n = 10Neborak took 6 of 10
S3Neborak2Hohenko8n = 10Hohenko took 8 of 10
S4Neborak4Hohenko5n = 9Hohenko took 5 of 9
S5Neborak1Hohenko2n = 3Hohenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeborakHohenkoN − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.842.0−6.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakHohenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime298 / 843 vs 22 / 4535.4%48.9%298 / 843 vs 22 / 45Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HohenkoNeborak 2.50/Hohenko 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Hohenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Neborak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 17:30D. Neborak—11115133S. Hohenko—7611111
LAug 29 · 12:30D. Neborak—511111272S. Hohenko—1191310113
LAug 16 · 07:30D. Neborak—911181S. Hohenko—11811113
LAug 16 · 06:30D. Neborak—11111191S. Hohenko—13913113
LAug 15 · 17:30D. Neborak—211331S. Hohenko—11711113
LAug 15 · 12:30D. Neborak—11761252S. Hohenko—9111110113
WAug 2 · 09:30D. Neborak—11811133S. Hohenko—8117111
WAug 2 · 04:30D. Neborak—1110114113S. Hohenko—21261152
LAug 1 · 16:02D. Neborak—4161021S. Hohenko—11141293
LAug 1 · 13:30D. Neborak—9820S. Hohenko—1111113
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191LSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163
S. Hohenko10
WAug 30 · 09:30S. Hohenko1.2511117113D. Neborak3.75501161WAug 30 · 08:30S. Hohenko1.501211123O. Shkurupii2.50107100WAug 30 · 08:00S. Hohenko3.50811118113O. Zhurba1.2811571182LAug 30 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.281111113S. Hohenko3.506680WAug 30 · 06:00O. Shkurupii2.387780S. Hohenko1.531111113WAug 30 · 04:30D. Neborak2.2511611672S. Hohenko1.57911811113LAug 29 · 16:00O. Shkurupii2.75111110123S. Hohenko1.403812101LAug 29 · 15:00S. Hohenko3.40711111122O. Zhurba1.30111367113LAug 29 · 14:00O. Zhurba1.3011411103S. Hohenko3.40911331WAug 29 · 13:30S. Hohenko1.571311123O. Shkurupii2.25113100
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