TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037672
Played Aug 29Finished
Yurii Shmyndra
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811711––––
Andrii Kotyk
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:38 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kotyk to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Shmyndra above · Andrii Kotyk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 56 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Andrii Kotyk at 56.5%
56 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Shmyndra 1–3 Andrii Kotyk Yurii Shmyndra has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:38What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kotyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Kotyk
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shmyndra 1561 vs Kotyk 1612
Kotyk
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shmyndra 40% vs Kotyk 60%
Kotyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shmyndra 40% vs Kotyk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shmyndra -2 · Kotyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kotyk) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShmyndra 2.10 / Kotyk 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kotyk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13037672
Shmyndra2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 48 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back26% 14 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 36
Kotyk1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 58 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it82% 36 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeShmyndra1wins
AwayKotyk3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderKotyk leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShmyndra33.3%1 of 3
AwayKotykn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shmyndra3Kotyk1n = 4Shmyndra took 3 of 4
S2Shmyndra2Kotyk2n = 4split evenly
S3Shmyndra2Kotyk2n = 4split evenly
S4Shmyndra0Kotyk3n = 3Kotyk took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricShmyndraKotykS − KBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match36.540.2−3.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShmyndraKotykBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 166 vs 184 / 41444%44.4%73 / 166 vs 184 / 414Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.135.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotykShmyndra 2.10/Kotyk 1.67
Hit
What we said
58.6%
Kotyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kotyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 23 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra—1111911132A. Kotyk—781113153
WAug 22 · 19:05Y. Shmyndra—1111103A. Kotyk—7950
LJul 5 · 09:35Y. Shmyndra—115461A. Kotyk—71111113
LJul 4 · 19:05Y. Shmyndra—931561A. Kotyk—111113113
Y. Shmyndra10
LSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192LSep 5 · 16:35S. Berezynskyi1.5391111113Y. Shmyndra2.38116841WSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182LSep 5 · 14:35O. Hura1.8311911113Y. Shmyndra1.83811681WSep 5 · 13:05Y. Shmyndra2.00111111113S. Kalenyk1.73613551
A. Kotyk10
WAug 30 · 10:35A. Kotyk1.5011114113V. Vlasenko2.50761181WAug 30 · 09:05A. Kotyk1.801111113O. Hura1.919750WAug 30 · 07:35A. Kotyk1.531113113Y. Shmyndra2.3851170WAug 30 · 06:05A. Kotyk1.401111143M. Smyrnov2.7516120WAug 30 · 04:35A. Kotyk1.401113113O. Mitla2.7591170WAug 29 · 17:05A. Kotyk1.4411119103O. Mitla2.63441181WAug 29 · 16:05A. Kotyk1.501111113M. Smyrnov2.505590LAug 29 · 14:35A. Kotyk1.679118101O. Hura2.1011711123LAug 29 · 12:35A. Kotyk1.3391111392A. Shypilov3.25117711113WAug 29 · 02:30A. Shypilov2.756790A. Kotyk1.401111113
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