TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043872
Played Aug 30Finished
Andrii Kotyk
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191311117––––
Oleksii Mitla
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:45 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kotyk to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Kotyk above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 62 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Andrii Kotyk at 70.7%
62 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotyk 10–3 Oleksii Mitla Oleksii Mitla has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:45What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kotyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-3 in 13
Kotyk
Correct
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotyk 1624 vs Mitla 1434
Kotyk
Correct
both rated, 190 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotyk 60% vs Mitla 20%
Kotyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotyk 60% vs Mitla 40%
Kotyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotyk +3 · Mitla -2
Kotyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Kotyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitla form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotyk 1.40 / Mitla 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Kotyk)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13043872
Kotyk1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 58 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it82% 36 of 44
Mitla2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 168 of 392
Down 0–1, comes back27% 63 of 233
Down 0–2, comes back12% 15 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotyk8wins
AwayMitla2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKotyk leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotyk100%7 of 7
AwayMitla66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotyk7Mitla3n = 10Kotyk took 7 of 10
S2Kotyk8Mitla2n = 10Kotyk took 8 of 10
S3Kotyk6Mitla4n = 10Kotyk took 6 of 10
S4Kotyk4Mitla3n = 7Kotyk took 4 of 7
S5Kotyk3Mitla2n = 5Kotyk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotykMitlaK − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.837.0+4.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotykMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime185 / 414 vs 317 / 73044.7%43.4%185 / 414 vs 317 / 730Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.038.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotykKotyk 1.40/Mitla 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Kotyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kotyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 07:35A. Kotyk—111187113O. Mitla—92111162
WAug 22 · 17:05A. Kotyk—1211103O. Mitla—10470
WAug 1 · 17:05A. Kotyk—11138143O. Mitla—91111131
WJul 26 · 07:35A. Kotyk—115119113O. Mitla—71181182
WJul 25 · 12:05A. Kotyk—1111113O. Mitla—8970
WJul 21 · 22:45A. Kotyk—1111113O. Mitla—9880
LJul 19 · 05:05A. Kotyk—61111152O. Mitla—116611113
WJul 5 · 08:35A. Kotyk—111111113O. Mitla—313581
LJul 4 · 17:35A. Kotyk—101181432O. Mitla—1231112113
WJul 3 · 23:00A. Kotyk—1113811113O. Mitla—131111682
A. Kotyk10
WAug 30 · 10:35A. Kotyk1.5011114113V. Vlasenko2.50761181WAug 30 · 09:05A. Kotyk1.801111113O. Hura1.919750WAug 30 · 07:35A. Kotyk1.531113113Y. Shmyndra2.3851170WAug 30 · 06:05A. Kotyk1.401111143M. Smyrnov2.7516120WAug 29 · 18:05Y. Shmyndra2.108870A. Kotyk1.671111113WAug 29 · 17:05A. Kotyk1.4411119103O. Mitla2.63441181WAug 29 · 16:05A. Kotyk1.501111113M. Smyrnov2.505590LAug 29 · 14:35A. Kotyk1.679118101O. Hura2.1011711123LAug 29 · 12:35A. Kotyk1.3391111392A. Shypilov3.25117711113WAug 29 · 02:30A. Shypilov2.756790A. Kotyk1.401111113
O. Mitla10
LSep 11 · 22:00S. Kalenyk1.57111312113O. Mitla2.255111461WSep 11 · 20:00V. Vlasenko1.8311991272O. Mitla1.837111110113LSep 10 · 02:45M. Smyrnov1.731111163O. Mitla2.0055140WSep 10 · 01:45O. Hura1.7399111192O. Mitla2.00111195113LSep 10 · 24:15V. Vlasenko1.801211713113O. Mitla1.91109111582WSep 9 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.53116981O. Mitla2.3871111113WSep 9 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.9191410101O. Mitla1.80111212123LSep 9 · 02:45O. Napirko1.331111113O. Mitla3.257940LSep 9 · 01:45M. Smyrnov1.8011611113O. Mitla1.91311881LAug 29 · 17:05A. Kotyk1.4411119103O. Mitla2.63441181
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