TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037778
Played Aug 29Finished
Andrii Kotyk
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114114911108––
Oleksii Mitla
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:15 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kotyk to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Kotyk above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-8
Point 68 set 4, 10-8 — our read held Andrii Kotyk at 70.7%
68 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotyk 10–3 Oleksii Mitla Oleksii Mitla has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:15What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kotyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-3 in 13
Kotyk
Correct
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotyk 1624 vs Mitla 1434
Kotyk
Correct
both rated, 190 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotyk 60% vs Mitla 40%
Kotyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotyk 40% vs Mitla 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotyk +1 · Mitla +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Kotyk) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotyk 1.44 / Mitla 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Kotyk)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13037778
Kotyk1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 61 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it83% 39 of 47
Mitla2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 169 of 396
Down 0–1, comes back27% 63 of 235
Down 0–2, comes back11% 15 of 132
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotyk8wins
AwayMitla2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKotyk leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotyk100%7 of 7
AwayMitla66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotyk7Mitla3n = 10Kotyk took 7 of 10
S2Kotyk8Mitla2n = 10Kotyk took 8 of 10
S3Kotyk6Mitla4n = 10Kotyk took 6 of 10
S4Kotyk4Mitla3n = 7Kotyk took 4 of 7
S5Kotyk3Mitla2n = 5Kotyk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotykMitlaK − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.837.0+4.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotykMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime185 / 414 vs 317 / 73044.7%43.4%185 / 414 vs 317 / 730Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.038.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotykKotyk 1.44/Mitla 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.9%
Kotyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kotyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 07:35A. Kotyk—111187113O. Mitla—92111162
WAug 22 · 17:05A. Kotyk—1211103O. Mitla—10470
WAug 1 · 17:05A. Kotyk—11138143O. Mitla—91111131
WJul 26 · 07:35A. Kotyk—115119113O. Mitla—71181182
WJul 25 · 12:05A. Kotyk—1111113O. Mitla—8970
WJul 21 · 22:45A. Kotyk—1111113O. Mitla—9880
LJul 19 · 05:05A. Kotyk—61111152O. Mitla—116611113
WJul 5 · 08:35A. Kotyk—111111113O. Mitla—313581
LJul 4 · 17:35A. Kotyk—101181432O. Mitla—1231112113
WJul 3 · 23:00A. Kotyk—1113811113O. Mitla—131111682
A. Kotyk10
WAug 30 · 10:35A. Kotyk1.5011114113V. Vlasenko2.50761181WAug 30 · 09:05A. Kotyk1.801111113O. Hura1.919750WAug 30 · 07:35A. Kotyk1.531113113Y. Shmyndra2.3851170WAug 30 · 06:05A. Kotyk1.401111143M. Smyrnov2.7516120WAug 30 · 04:35A. Kotyk1.401113113O. Mitla2.7591170WAug 29 · 18:05Y. Shmyndra2.108870A. Kotyk1.671111113WAug 29 · 16:05A. Kotyk1.501111113M. Smyrnov2.505590LAug 29 · 14:35A. Kotyk1.679118101O. Hura2.1011711123LAug 29 · 12:35A. Kotyk1.3391111392A. Shypilov3.25117711113WAug 29 · 02:30A. Shypilov2.756790A. Kotyk1.401111113
O. Mitla10
LSep 11 · 22:00S. Kalenyk1.57111312113O. Mitla2.255111461WSep 11 · 20:00V. Vlasenko1.8311991272O. Mitla1.837111110113LSep 10 · 02:45M. Smyrnov1.731111163O. Mitla2.0055140WSep 10 · 01:45O. Hura1.7399111192O. Mitla2.00111195113LSep 10 · 24:15V. Vlasenko1.801211713113O. Mitla1.91109111582WSep 9 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.53116981O. Mitla2.3871111113WSep 9 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.9191410101O. Mitla1.80111212123LSep 9 · 02:45O. Napirko1.331111113O. Mitla3.257940LSep 9 · 01:45M. Smyrnov1.8011611113O. Mitla1.91311881LAug 30 · 04:35A. Kotyk1.401113113O. Mitla2.7591170
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