TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043807
Played Aug 30Finished
Andrii Kotyk
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1111161412––––
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:47 and never touched — 68.7% is still 68.7%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kotyk to win
68.7%
68.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Kotyk above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 55 set 3, 14-12 — our read held Andrii Kotyk at 68.7%
55 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotyk 10–3 Mykyta Smyrnov Mykyta Smyrnov has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:47What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kotyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-3 in 13
Kotyk
Correct
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotyk 1681 vs Smyrnov 1553
Kotyk
Correct
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotyk 80% vs Smyrnov 60%
Kotyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotyk 70% vs Smyrnov 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotyk +4 · Smyrnov +2
Kotyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Kotyk) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotyk 1.40 / Smyrnov 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Kotyk)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13043807
Kotyk1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 66 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it85% 44 of 52
Smyrnov2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 119 of 289
Down 0–1, comes back21% 32 of 153
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotyk8wins
AwaySmyrnov2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKotyk leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotyk100%6 of 6
AwaySmyrnov50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotyk6Smyrnov4n = 10Kotyk took 6 of 10
S2Kotyk9Smyrnov1n = 10Kotyk took 9 of 10
S3Kotyk6Smyrnov4n = 10Kotyk took 6 of 10
S4Kotyk2Smyrnov3n = 5Smyrnov took 3 of 5
S5Kotyk3Smyrnov1n = 4Kotyk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotykSmyrnovK − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.232.9+7.3per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotykSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 414 vs 378 / 77545.4%48.8%188 / 414 vs 378 / 775Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotykKotyk 1.40/Smyrnov 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Kotyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kotyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 06:05A. Kotyk—1111143M. Smyrnov—16120
WAug 29 · 16:05A. Kotyk—1111113M. Smyrnov—5590
WAug 29 · 01:30A. Kotyk—711114113M. Smyrnov—11991162
WAug 23 · 04:35A. Kotyk—11118123M. Smyrnov—7711101
LJul 26 · 06:35A. Kotyk—11990M. Smyrnov—1311113
WJul 25 · 17:35A. Kotyk—911614113M. Smyrnov—117111282
LJul 21 · 23:45A. Kotyk—71111882M. Smyrnov—113311113
WJul 19 · 08:35A. Kotyk—151199123M. Smyrnov—1361111102
WJul 17 · 21:00A. Kotyk—1111113M. Smyrnov—4360
WJul 4 · 13:35A. Kotyk—1111113M. Smyrnov—6890
A. Kotyk10
WAug 30 · 10:35A. Kotyk1.5011114113V. Vlasenko2.50761181WAug 30 · 09:05A. Kotyk1.801111113O. Hura1.919750WAug 30 · 07:35A. Kotyk1.531113113Y. Shmyndra2.3851170WAug 30 · 04:35A. Kotyk1.401113113O. Mitla2.7591170WAug 29 · 18:05Y. Shmyndra2.108870A. Kotyk1.671111113WAug 29 · 17:05A. Kotyk1.4411119103O. Mitla2.63441181WAug 29 · 16:05A. Kotyk1.501111113M. Smyrnov2.505590LAug 29 · 14:35A. Kotyk1.679118101O. Hura2.1011711123LAug 29 · 12:35A. Kotyk1.3391111392A. Shypilov3.25117711113WAug 29 · 02:30A. Shypilov2.756790A. Kotyk1.401111113
M. Smyrnov10
WSep 11 · 19:05Y. Kravets1.807890M. Smyrnov1.911111113LSep 11 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.9111511782I. Romaniak1.80911511113LSep 11 · 15:35R. Haiseniuk1.7381111113M. Smyrnov2.00119991LSep 11 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk1.57611117113M. Smyrnov2.2511661162WSep 11 · 12:35R. Lazebnyi1.57971111112M. Smyrnov2.25111164133WSep 10 · 02:45M. Smyrnov1.731111163O. Mitla2.0055140WSep 10 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.10811811122M. Smyrnov1.67118117143WSep 9 · 23:45M. Smyrnov2.0011113113O. Hura1.73891191LSep 9 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.38912311113M. Smyrnov1.53111011972LAug 29 · 16:05A. Kotyk1.501111113M. Smyrnov2.505590
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