TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043741
Played Aug 30Finished
Andrii Kotyk
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117115––––
Orest Hura
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kotyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Kotyk above · Orest Hura below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 54 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Andrii Kotyk at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotyk 7–5 Orest Hura Orest Hura has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:17What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kotyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Kotyk
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotyk 1660 vs Hura 1586
Kotyk
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotyk 100% vs Hura 80%
Kotyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotyk 80% vs Hura 90%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotyk +5 · Hura +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kotyk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hura form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotyk 1.80 / Hura 1.91
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Kotyk)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13043741
Kotyk1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 61 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it83% 39 of 47
Hura1.91
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 35 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back29% 13 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back21% 5 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotyk5wins
AwayHura5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotyk50%2 of 4
AwayHura50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotyk4Hura6n = 10Hura took 6 of 10
S2Kotyk3Hura7n = 10Hura took 7 of 10
S3Kotyk7Hura3n = 10Kotyk took 7 of 10
S4Kotyk5Hura2n = 7Kotyk took 5 of 7
S5Kotyk2Hura3n = 5Hura took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotykHuraK − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.837.3+1.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotykHuraBasisWin rate · lifetime186 / 413 vs 419 / 78645%53.3%186 / 413 vs 419 / 786Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.039.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotykKotyk 1.80/Hura 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Kotyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kotyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 24:00A. Kotyk—512711113O. Hura—111011972
LAug 23 · 09:05A. Kotyk—10670O. Hura—1211113
LAug 1 · 14:35A. Kotyk—11511942O. Hura—91161173
WJul 26 · 05:35A. Kotyk—11611113O. Hura—611251
LJul 25 · 18:35A. Kotyk—71090O. Hura—1112113
LJul 5 · 07:05A. Kotyk—89111162O. Hura—111168113
WJul 4 · 15:35A. Kotyk—741111133O. Hura—111166112
WJul 4 · 01:00A. Kotyk—91111113O. Hura—116751
LJun 19 · 20:30A. Kotyk—118118102O. Hura—811811123
WMay 10 · 09:05A. Kotyk—1111113O. Hura—5670
A. Kotyk10
WAug 30 · 10:35A. Kotyk1.5011114113V. Vlasenko2.50761181WAug 30 · 07:35A. Kotyk1.531113113Y. Shmyndra2.3851170WAug 30 · 06:05A. Kotyk1.401111143M. Smyrnov2.7516120WAug 30 · 04:35A. Kotyk1.401113113O. Mitla2.7591170WAug 29 · 18:05Y. Shmyndra2.108870A. Kotyk1.671111113WAug 29 · 17:05A. Kotyk1.4411119103O. Mitla2.63441181WAug 29 · 16:05A. Kotyk1.501111113M. Smyrnov2.505590LAug 29 · 14:35A. Kotyk1.679118101O. Hura2.1011711123LAug 29 · 12:35A. Kotyk1.3391111392A. Shypilov3.25117711113WAug 29 · 02:30A. Shypilov2.756790A. Kotyk1.401111113
O. Hura10
WSep 11 · 21:30V. Vlasenko2.0071080O. Hura1.731112113LSep 11 · 20:30A. Shypilov2.1012119113O. Hura1.671071191LSep 10 · 03:15S. Kalenyk1.671091111113O. Hura2.1012117762LSep 10 · 01:45O. Hura1.7399111192O. Mitla2.00111195113LSep 9 · 23:45M. Smyrnov2.0011113113O. Hura1.73891191WSep 9 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.20711851O. Hura1.6111811113WSep 9 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.101161171O. Hura1.6713119113LSep 8 · 11:25S. Rak1.301112113O. Hura3.4081060LSep 8 · 09:55O. Hura2.1051771182N. Kovalchuk1.671115114113WAug 29 · 14:35A. Kotyk1.679118101O. Hura2.1011711123
Upcoming Matches
A. Kotyk
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O. Hura
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