TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13030176
Played Aug 28Finished
Ladislav Novotny
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1181012811911––
Andrii Tkachenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Tkachenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Novotny above · Andrii Tkachenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 80 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Andrii Tkachenko at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Novotny 3–3 Andrii Tkachenko Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:15What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tkachenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1191 vs Tkachenko 1165
Novotny
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 60% vs Tkachenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 50% vs Tkachenko 70%
Tkachenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny +2 · Tkachenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 1.91 / Tkachenko 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Novotny)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13030176
Novotny1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 39 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back27% 11 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Tkachenko1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeNovotny3wins
AwayTkachenko3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny60%3 of 5
AwayTkachenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny5Tkachenko1n = 6Novotny took 5 of 6
S2Novotny2Tkachenko4n = 6Tkachenko took 4 of 6
S3Novotny3Tkachenko3n = 6split evenly
S4Novotny2Tkachenko2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricNovotnyTkachenkoN − TBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match37.334.3+3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyTkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 352 vs 19 / 4050.3%47.5%177 / 352 vs 19 / 40Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.935.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyNovotny 1.91/Tkachenko 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tkachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 28 · 09:30L. Novotny—11911113A. Tkachenko—511631
LAug 28 · 07:30L. Novotny—1110891A. Tkachenko—81211113
LAug 27 · 08:00L. Novotny—6650A. Tkachenko—1111113
WAug 16 · 08:58L. Novotny—11116113A. Tkachenko—751181
LAug 16 · 07:00L. Novotny—1710117102A. Tkachenko—1512611123
WJul 25 · 06:00L. Novotny—1111113A. Tkachenko—5770
L. Novotny10
LSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:00L. Novotny1.7331080J. Martinek2.001112113WSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113LSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113WSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113WSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191LSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny2.2511119772M. Smesny1.57561111113
A. Tkachenko10
LAug 28 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.54511631L. Novotny2.1811911113WAug 28 · 08:00A. Tkachenko3.40101212113J. Cernik1.3012101091WAug 28 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.001111123V. Kubat1.7397100LAug 27 · 09:28J. Strnad1.831114123A. Tkachenko1.83812100WAug 27 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.501111113L. Novotny1.506650LAug 27 · 07:30V. Kubat1.831111113A. Tkachenko1.839780WAug 27 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.10111110113J. Strnad1.67881231WAug 22 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.6011118113P. Potmesil2.20461151WAug 22 · 08:00A. Tkachenko1.531110129113P. Serak2.38712101172WAug 22 · 07:30J. Koch1.44581191A. Tkachenko2.6311119113
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