TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13034805
Played Aug 28Finished
Andrii Tkachenko
Home
1.54
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511119611311––
Ladislav Novotny
Away
2.18
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:20 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeAndrii Tkachenko to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAndrii Tkachenko above · Ladislav Novotny below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 67 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Andrii Tkachenko at 57.8%
67 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Tkachenko 3–2 Ladislav Novotny Ladislav Novotny has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:20What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.54 (59%)
Tkachenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkachenko 1180 vs Novotny 1132
Tkachenko
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkachenko 80% vs Novotny 60%
Tkachenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkachenko 80% vs Novotny 50%
Tkachenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkachenko +3 · Novotny +1
Tkachenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Tkachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (46%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkachenko 1.54 / Novotny 2.18
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Tkachenko)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13034805
Tkachenko1.54
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Novotny2.18
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 36 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeTkachenko3wins
AwayNovotny2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderTkachenko leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkachenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayNovotny50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkachenko1Novotny4n = 5Novotny took 4 of 5
S2Tkachenko3Novotny2n = 5Tkachenko took 3 of 5
S3Tkachenko3Novotny2n = 5Tkachenko took 3 of 5
S4Tkachenko2Novotny1n = 3Tkachenko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricTkachenkoNovotnyT − NBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match36.236.4−0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkachenkoNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime19 / 39 vs 173 / 34748.7%49.9%19 / 39 vs 173 / 347Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoTkachenko 1.54/Novotny 2.18
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 28 · 07:30A. Tkachenko—81211113L. Novotny—1110891
WAug 27 · 08:00A. Tkachenko—1111113L. Novotny—6650
LAug 16 · 08:58A. Tkachenko—751181L. Novotny—11116113
WAug 16 · 07:00A. Tkachenko—1512611123L. Novotny—1710117102
LJul 25 · 06:00A. Tkachenko—5770L. Novotny—1111113
A. Tkachenko10
WAug 28 · 08:00A. Tkachenko3.40101212113J. Cernik1.3012101091WAug 28 · 07:30L. Novotny1.911110891A. Tkachenko1.8081211113WAug 28 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.001111123V. Kubat1.7397100LAug 27 · 09:28J. Strnad1.831114123A. Tkachenko1.83812100WAug 27 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.501111113L. Novotny1.506650LAug 27 · 07:30V. Kubat1.831111113A. Tkachenko1.839780WAug 27 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.10111110113J. Strnad1.67881231WAug 22 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.6011118113P. Potmesil2.20461151WAug 22 · 08:00A. Tkachenko1.531110129113P. Serak2.38712101172WAug 22 · 07:30J. Koch1.44581191A. Tkachenko2.6311119113
L. Novotny10
LSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:00L. Novotny1.7331080J. Martinek2.001112113WSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113LSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113WSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113WSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LAug 28 · 07:30L. Novotny1.911110891A. Tkachenko1.8081211113LAug 27 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.501111113L. Novotny1.506650
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