TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12470425
Played Aug 22Finished
Andrii Tkachenko
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11710121210911117
Petr Serak
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:49 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeAndrii Tkachenko to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Tkachenko above · Petr Serak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 100 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Andrii Tkachenko at 64.5%
100 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Tkachenko 3–0 Petr Serak Petr Serak has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:49What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Tkachenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Tkachenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkachenko 1103 vs Serak 1036
Tkachenko
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkachenko 40% vs Serak 20%
Tkachenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkachenko 40% vs Serak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkachenko +2 · Serak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Tkachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Serak form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkachenko 1.53 / Serak 2.38
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Tkachenko)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12470425
Tkachenko1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Serak2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog18% won 6 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeTkachenko3wins
AwaySerak0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderTkachenko leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkachenko2Serak1n = 3Tkachenko took 2 of 3
S2Tkachenko2Serak1n = 3Tkachenko took 2 of 3
S3Tkachenko3Serak0n = 3Tkachenko took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricTkachenkoSerakT − SBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match43.031.7+11.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkachenkoSerakBasisWin rate · lifetime13 / 31 vs 80 / 19341.9%41.5%13 / 31 vs 80 / 193Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.136.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoTkachenko 1.53/Serak 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.8%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tkachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 22 · 08:00A. Tkachenko—1110129113P. Serak—712101172
WAug 21 · 07:30A. Tkachenko—1111113P. Serak—7860
WJul 27 · 08:00A. Tkachenko—101111113P. Serak—123661
A. Tkachenko10
LAug 28 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.54511631L. Novotny2.1811911113WAug 28 · 08:00A. Tkachenko3.40101212113J. Cernik1.3012101091WAug 28 · 07:30L. Novotny1.911110891A. Tkachenko1.8081211113WAug 28 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.001111123V. Kubat1.7397100LAug 27 · 09:28J. Strnad1.831114123A. Tkachenko1.83812100WAug 27 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.501111113L. Novotny1.506650LAug 27 · 07:30V. Kubat1.831111113A. Tkachenko1.839780WAug 27 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.10111110113J. Strnad1.67881231WAug 22 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.6011118113P. Potmesil2.20461151WAug 22 · 07:30J. Koch1.44581191A. Tkachenko2.6311119113
P. Serak10
WAug 22 · 09:00P. Serak1.101211127133J. Koch6.501451011112LAug 22 · 07:00P. Potmesil1.67771111113P. Serak2.1011117972WAug 22 · 06:30P. Serak1.251111113J. Koch3.756860LAug 21 · 08:58P. Petr1.441111113P. Serak2.638490LAug 21 · 08:30J. Strnad1.361111113P. Serak3.004340LAug 21 · 07:30P. Serak2.207860A. Tkachenko1.611111113LAug 21 · 06:30P. Petr1.44881111113P. Serak2.6311118942WAug 12 · 09:30C. Havrda2.2031060P. Serak1.601112113LAug 12 · 08:30J. Strnad1.57101111113P. Serak2.25124751WAug 12 · 07:30P. Serak1.33818116113V. Kubat3.25111671162
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