TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12470408
Played Aug 22Finished
Pavel Potmesil
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711711117119117
Petr Serak
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:49 and never touched — 58.8% is still 58.8%
Graded at full timePavel Potmesil to win
58.8%
58.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Potmesil above · Petr Serak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 92 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Pavel Potmesil at 58.8%
92 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Potmesil 6–2 Petr Serak Petr Serak has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:49What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Potmesil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Potmesil
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potmesil 1018 vs Serak 1060
Serak
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potmesil 0% vs Serak 20%
Serak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potmesil 20% vs Serak 50%
Serak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Potmesil -5 · Serak +1
Potmesil
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Potmesil) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Serak form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotmesil 1.67 / Serak 2.10
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Potmesil)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12470408
Potmesil1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite62% won 13 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it75% 6 of 8
Serak2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog17% won 6 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back10% 2 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomePotmesil6wins
AwaySerak2wins
2 of 8 to a deciderPotmesil leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotmesil50%2 of 4
AwaySerak0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potmesil4Serak4n = 8split evenly
S2Potmesil4Serak4n = 8split evenly
S3Potmesil5Serak3n = 8Potmesil took 5 of 8
S4Potmesil5Serak2n = 7Potmesil took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricPotmesilSerakP − SBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match42.037.5+4.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotmesilSerakBasisWin rate · lifetime27 / 60 vs 80 / 19045%42.1%27 / 60 vs 80 / 190Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotmesilPotmesil 1.67/Serak 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.8%
Potmesil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Potmesil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 22 · 07:00P. Potmesil—771111113P. Serak—11117972
WJul 27 · 06:30P. Potmesil—1091115113P. Serak—121181362
LMay 29 · 06:30P. Potmesil—117681P. Serak—71111113
WMay 27 · 11:00P. Potmesil—1112113P. Serak—61040
WMay 21 · 06:30P. Potmesil—71211113P. Serak—1110441
WMay 11 · 07:30P. Potmesil—131212113P. Serak—11101441
WApr 28 · 13:00P. Potmesil—101111113P. Serak—129731
LApr 28 · 10:00P. Potmesil—154971P. Serak—131111113
P. Potmesil10
LAug 22 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.6011118113P. Potmesil2.20461151WAug 22 · 08:30P. Potmesil1.671111113J. Koch2.101690LAug 22 · 06:00A. Tkachenko1.831111113P. Potmesil1.834790LAug 10 · 08:58V. Kubat1.5011115113P. Potmesil2.50781181LAug 10 · 08:00J. Strnad2.0011911113P. Potmesil1.73611191LAug 10 · 07:00V. Kubat1.6711711113P. Potmesil2.10611741LAug 10 · 06:30P. Potmesil2.2058110A. Hejduk1.611111133LJul 27 · 09:30P. Potmesil1.283590A. Tkachenko3.501111113LJul 27 · 08:30J. Jira2.5051113133P. Potmesil1.5011711111WJul 27 · 07:30P. Potmesil1.611111113A. Tkachenko2.208590
P. Serak10
WAug 22 · 09:00P. Serak1.101211127133J. Koch6.501451011112LAug 22 · 08:00A. Tkachenko1.531110129113P. Serak2.38712101172WAug 22 · 06:30P. Serak1.251111113J. Koch3.756860LAug 21 · 08:58P. Petr1.441111113P. Serak2.638490LAug 21 · 08:30J. Strnad1.361111113P. Serak3.004340LAug 21 · 07:30P. Serak2.207860A. Tkachenko1.611111113LAug 21 · 06:30P. Petr1.44881111113P. Serak2.6311118942WAug 12 · 09:30C. Havrda2.2031060P. Serak1.601112113LAug 12 · 08:30J. Strnad1.57101111113P. Serak2.25124751WAug 12 · 07:30P. Serak1.33818116113V. Kubat3.25111671162
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.