TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12410240
Played Aug 12Finished
Cesta Havrda
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
3111012611––––
Petr Serak
Away
1.60
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:03 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timePetr Serak to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingCesta Havrda above · Petr Serak below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 53 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Petr Serak at 61.9%
53 points played in total.
H2H Cesta Havrda 6–17 Petr Serak Cesta Havrda has won 6 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:03What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Serak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-17 in 23
Serak
Correct
gap of 11 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Havrda 1046 vs Serak 1076
Serak
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Havrda 40% vs Serak 80%
Serak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Havrda 30% vs Serak 50%
Serak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Havrda +2 · Serak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Serak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Serak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (63%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHavrda 2.20 / Serak 1.60
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Serak)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12410240
Havrda2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog25% won 16 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back6% 2 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 25
Serak1.60
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 18 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it62% 13 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHavrda3wins
AwaySerak7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSerak leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHavrda25%1 of 4
AwaySerak66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Havrda4Serak6n = 10Serak took 6 of 10
S2Havrda6Serak4n = 10Havrda took 6 of 10
S3Havrda5Serak5n = 10split evenly
S4Havrda3Serak5n = 8Serak took 5 of 8
S5Havrda1Serak4n = 5Serak took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHavrdaSerakH − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.741.2−4.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHavrdaSerakBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 263 vs 83 / 19342.6%43%112 / 263 vs 83 / 193Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SerakHavrda 2.20/Serak 1.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.9%
Serak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Serak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 06:30C. Havrda—71391162P. Serak—1111117113
LMar 16 · 07:30C. Havrda—6640P. Serak—1111113
LSep 9 · 11:00C. Havrda—11118862P. Serak—951111113
WAug 7 · 13:00C. Havrda—1311113P. Serak—11950
WAug 7 · 11:30C. Havrda—71211113P. Serak—1110361
LAug 6 · 09:04C. Havrda—41131292P. Serak—1181110113
LAug 6 · 08:30C. Havrda—11511962P. Serak—711711113
LJul 17 · 11:30C. Havrda—271181P. Serak—11119113
LJul 1 · 09:03C. Havrda—136881P. Serak—111111113
WJul 1 · 07:00C. Havrda—312114113P. Serak—111071132
C. Havrda10
LSep 1 · 12:59C. Havrda3.759780A. Hejduk1.251111113LSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113WSep 1 · 11:30A. Hejduk1.2071111772C. Havrda4.33116411113LSep 1 · 10:00C. Havrda2.209111081Z. Kasinski1.6111712113WAug 25 · 13:30M. Smesny2.00115612102C. Havrda1.739111110123WAug 25 · 12:00L. Novotny1.507470C. Havrda2.501111113WAug 25 · 11:00J. Strnad2.50912121442C. Havrda1.5011101016113LAug 25 · 10:30C. Havrda1.801091111112M. Smesny1.91121195133LAug 24 · 12:58C. Havrda1.44681171V. Kubat2.6311115113LAug 24 · 12:00J. Strnad2.6331111113C. Havrda1.44118591
P. Serak10
WAug 22 · 09:00P. Serak1.101211127133J. Koch6.501451011112LAug 22 · 08:00A. Tkachenko1.531110129113P. Serak2.38712101172LAug 22 · 07:00P. Potmesil1.67771111113P. Serak2.1011117972WAug 22 · 06:30P. Serak1.251111113J. Koch3.756860LAug 21 · 08:58P. Petr1.441111113P. Serak2.638490LAug 21 · 08:30J. Strnad1.361111113P. Serak3.004340LAug 21 · 07:30P. Serak2.207860A. Tkachenko1.611111113LAug 21 · 06:30P. Petr1.44881111113P. Serak2.6311118942LAug 12 · 08:30J. Strnad1.57101111113P. Serak2.25124751WAug 12 · 07:30P. Serak1.33818116113V. Kubat3.25111671162
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