TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12474798
Played Aug 22Finished
Petr Serak
Home
1.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
121411512107111311
Jiri Koch
Away
6.50
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:55 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timePetr Serak to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Serak above · Jiri Koch below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 106 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Petr Serak at 63.2%
106 points played in total.
H2H Petr Serak 4–0 Jiri Koch Jiri Koch has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:55What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.10 (86%)
Serak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Serak
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Serak 1060 vs Koch 910
Serak
Correct
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Serak 20% vs Koch 0%
Serak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Serak 30% vs Koch 10%
Serak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Serak -2 · Koch -5
Koch
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Serak) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koch form (0%) is below what odds imply (15%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSerak 1.10 / Koch 6.50
Signal prob.86% / 15%
Edge (Serak)-0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12474798
Serak1.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 21 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it65% 15 of 23
Koch6.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog26% won 9 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSerak4wins
AwayKoch0wins
1 of 4 to a deciderSerak leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSerak100%3 of 3
AwayKochn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Serak3Koch1n = 4Serak took 3 of 4
S2Serak4Koch0n = 4Serak took 4 of 4
S3Serak4Koch0n = 4Serak took 4 of 4
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home375%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSerakKochS − KBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match39.828.5+11.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSerakKochBasisWin rate · lifetime81 / 194 vs 40 / 10441.8%38.5%81 / 194 vs 40 / 104Avg sets wonper match1.91.6per matchAvg pointsper match36.335.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SerakSerak 1.10/Koch 6.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.5%
Serak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Serak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 22 · 09:00P. Serak—1211127133J. Koch—1451011112
WAug 22 · 06:30P. Serak—1111113J. Koch—6860
WJun 30 · 10:00P. Serak—1112153J. Koch—410130
WJun 24 · 11:00P. Serak—1111113J. Koch—6370
P. Serak10
LAug 22 · 08:00A. Tkachenko1.531110129113P. Serak2.38712101172LAug 22 · 07:00P. Potmesil1.67771111113P. Serak2.1011117972WAug 22 · 06:30P. Serak1.251111113J. Koch3.756860LAug 21 · 08:58P. Petr1.441111113P. Serak2.638490LAug 21 · 08:30J. Strnad1.361111113P. Serak3.004340LAug 21 · 07:30P. Serak2.207860A. Tkachenko1.611111113LAug 21 · 06:30P. Petr1.44881111113P. Serak2.6311118942WAug 12 · 09:30C. Havrda2.2031060P. Serak1.601112113LAug 12 · 08:30J. Strnad1.57101111113P. Serak2.25124751WAug 12 · 07:30P. Serak1.33818116113V. Kubat3.25111671162
J. Koch10
LAug 22 · 08:30P. Potmesil1.671111113J. Koch2.101690LAug 22 · 07:30J. Koch1.44581191A. Tkachenko2.6311119113LAug 22 · 06:30P. Serak1.251111113J. Koch3.756860LAug 18 · 09:00V. Kubat1.3311111311123J. Koch3.25913152102LAug 18 · 08:30P. Petr1.831611113J. Koch1.8314880LAug 18 · 07:30J. Koch3.005380J. Strnad1.361111113LAug 18 · 06:30V. Kubat1.3071111113J. Koch3.40117591LJul 8 · 09:00J. Koch2.757910V. Kubat1.401111113LJul 8 · 08:30V. Kubat1.4011411113J. Koch2.75811651WJul 8 · 07:30J. Koch1.911111133P. Petr1.8088110
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