TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12449615
Played Aug 18Finished
Jiri Koch
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511311811––––
Jaroslav Strnad 1961
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:32 and never touched — 72.8% is still 72.8%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Strnad 1961 to win
72.8%
72.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Koch above · Jaroslav Strnad 1961 below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 49 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Jaroslav Strnad 1961 at 72.8%
49 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Koch 0–8 Jaroslav Strnad 1961 Jiri Koch has won 0 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:32What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Strnad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-8 in 8
Strnad
Correct
gap of 8 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koch 962 vs Strnad 1095
Strnad
Correct
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koch 20% vs Strnad 60%
Strnad
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koch 40% vs Strnad 60%
Strnad
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koch -3 · Strnad -1
Koch
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Strnad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strnad form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoch 3.00 / Strnad 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Strnad)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12449615
Koch3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog26% won 9 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Strnad1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 25 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKoch0wins
AwayStrnad8wins
2 of 8 to a deciderStrnad leads 8–0, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKochn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayStrnad100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koch1Strnad7n = 8Strnad took 7 of 8
S2Koch1Strnad7n = 8Strnad took 7 of 8
S3Koch2Strnad6n = 8Strnad took 6 of 8
S4Koch2Strnad2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away450%
These 8 meetings
MetricKochStrnadK − SBasisWins08−8in 8 meetingsFirst set17−6of 8Avg pointsper match27.438.2−10.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKochStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime40 / 100 vs 155 / 38140%40.7%40 / 100 vs 155 / 381Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.435.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrnadKoch 3.00/Strnad 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.8%
Strnad · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 18 · 07:30J. Koch—5380J. Strnad—1111113
LJun 29 · 09:30J. Koch—86111132J. Strnad—111158113
LJun 29 · 08:00J. Koch—6780J. Strnad—1111113
LNov 2 · 13:30J. Koch—8590J. Strnad—1111113
LAug 3 · 09:00J. Koch—661171J. Strnad—11114113
LAug 3 · 08:30J. Koch—115461J. Strnad—61111113
LJul 2 · 02:00J. Koch—3760J. Strnad—1111113
LFeb 2 · 09:00J. Koch—101181192J. Strnad—129119113
J. Koch10
LAug 22 · 09:00P. Serak1.101211127133J. Koch6.501451011112LAug 22 · 08:30P. Potmesil1.671111113J. Koch2.101690LAug 22 · 07:30J. Koch1.44581191A. Tkachenko2.6311119113LAug 22 · 06:30P. Serak1.251111113J. Koch3.756860LAug 18 · 09:00V. Kubat1.3311111311123J. Koch3.25913152102LAug 18 · 08:30P. Petr1.831611113J. Koch1.8314880LAug 18 · 06:30V. Kubat1.3071111113J. Koch3.40117591LJul 8 · 09:00J. Koch2.757910V. Kubat1.401111113LJul 8 · 08:30V. Kubat1.4011411113J. Koch2.75811651WJul 8 · 07:30J. Koch1.911111133P. Petr1.8088110
J. Strnad10
LSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830LSep 3 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.201111113J. Strnad4.334460WSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113LSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113LSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891LSep 1 · 08:00J. Cernik1.441111113J. Strnad2.638380
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