TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12449597
Played Aug 18Finished
Pavel Petr
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1614118118––––
Jiri Koch
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:31 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeJiri Koch to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavel Petr above · Jiri Koch below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 68 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jiri Koch at 55.7%
68 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Petr 8–10 Jiri Koch Pavel Petr has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:31What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Koch
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-10 in 18
Koch
Wrong
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Petr 1162 vs Koch 986
Petr
Correct
both rated, 176 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Petr 80% vs Koch 20%
Petr
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Petr 80% vs Koch 40%
Petr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Petr +3 · Koch -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Petr) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koch form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPetr 1.83 / Koch 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Petr)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12449597
Petr1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Koch1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePetr4wins
AwayKoch6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKoch leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePetrn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKoch75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Petr2Koch8n = 10Koch took 8 of 10
S2Petr3Koch7n = 10Koch took 7 of 10
S3Petr4Koch6n = 10Koch took 6 of 10
S4Petr3Koch2n = 5Petr took 3 of 5
S5Petr3Koch1n = 4Petr took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricPetrKochP − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.641.2−4.6per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPetrKochBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 139 vs 40 / 9857.6%40.8%80 / 139 vs 40 / 98Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.235.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PetrPetr 1.83/Koch 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Petr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Petr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 8 · 07:30P. Petr—88110J. Koch—1111133
LJun 29 · 07:00P. Petr—9560J. Koch—1111113
WJun 24 · 12:00P. Petr—971511113J. Koch—111113892
LJun 9 · 13:30P. Petr—281171J. Koch—11118113
WJun 9 · 11:30P. Petr—1181016123J. Koch—6111214102
WMay 6 · 07:30P. Petr—1111113J. Koch—8980
LJan 17 · 14:00P. Petr—918100J. Koch—1120123
WJan 17 · 12:30P. Petr—1011711113J. Koch—12811672
LSep 19 · 16:30P. Petr—11240J. Koch—1311113
LSep 6 · 11:00P. Petr—91112932J. Koch—1181011113
P. Petr10
WAug 21 · 08:58P. Petr1.441111113P. Serak2.638490LAug 21 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.10111111113P. Petr1.67491371LAug 21 · 07:00J. Strnad1.911114113P. Petr1.8061250WAug 21 · 06:30P. Petr1.44881111113P. Serak2.6311118942WAug 18 · 09:30P. Petr1.9111129113J. Strnad1.807101161WAug 18 · 07:00P. Petr1.61111129113V. Kubat2.2079111172WAug 18 · 06:00J. Strnad1.57126111172P. Petr2.25141194113WAug 11 · 13:28J. Strnad1.50119111572P. Petr2.50711517113LAug 11 · 12:00J. Strnad1.501615113P. Petr2.50141390WAug 11 · 11:00P. Serak2.3851211872P. Petr1.531110711113
J. Koch10
LAug 22 · 09:00P. Serak1.101211127133J. Koch6.501451011112LAug 22 · 08:30P. Potmesil1.671111113J. Koch2.101690LAug 22 · 07:30J. Koch1.44581191A. Tkachenko2.6311119113LAug 22 · 06:30P. Serak1.251111113J. Koch3.756860LAug 18 · 09:00V. Kubat1.3311111311123J. Koch3.25913152102LAug 18 · 07:30J. Koch3.005380J. Strnad1.361111113LAug 18 · 06:30V. Kubat1.3071111113J. Koch3.40117591LJul 8 · 09:00J. Koch2.757910V. Kubat1.401111113LJul 8 · 08:30V. Kubat1.4011411113J. Koch2.75811651WJul 8 · 07:30J. Koch1.911111133P. Petr1.8088110
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