TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12454565
Played Aug 18Finished
Pavel Petr
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171210911116––
Jaroslav Strnad 1961
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Strnad 1961 to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavel Petr above · Jaroslav Strnad 1961 below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 77 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Jaroslav Strnad 1961 at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Petr 2–3 Jaroslav Strnad 1961 Pavel Petr has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:00What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Strnad
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Petr 1170 vs Strnad 1104
Petr
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Petr 80% vs Strnad 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Petr 80% vs Strnad 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Petr +4 · Strnad +2
Petr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Strnad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strnad form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPetr 1.91 / Strnad 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Strnad)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12454565
Petr1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog54% won 7 of 13
Down 0–1, comes back33% 3 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back17% 1 of 6
Strnad1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite72% won 23 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePetr2wins
AwayStrnad3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderStrnad leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePetrn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStrnad66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Petr2Strnad3n = 5Strnad took 3 of 5
S2Petr2Strnad3n = 5Strnad took 3 of 5
S3Petr0Strnad5n = 5Strnad took 5 of 5
S4Petr1Strnad2n = 3Strnad took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricPetrStrnadP − SBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match39.243.0−3.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPetrStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime81 / 140 vs 155 / 38057.9%40.8%81 / 140 vs 155 / 380Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.235.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrnadPetr 1.91/Strnad 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Strnad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Petr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 18 · 06:00P. Petr—141194113J. Strnad—126111172
WAug 11 · 13:28P. Petr—711517113J. Strnad—119111572
LAug 11 · 12:00P. Petr—141390J. Strnad—1615113
LJun 29 · 06:00P. Petr—61090J. Strnad—1112113
LFeb 11 · 12:00P. Petr—1171071J. Strnad—51112113
P. Petr10
WAug 21 · 08:58P. Petr1.441111113P. Serak2.638490LAug 21 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.10111111113P. Petr1.67491371LAug 21 · 07:00J. Strnad1.911114113P. Petr1.8061250WAug 21 · 06:30P. Petr1.44881111113P. Serak2.6311118942WAug 18 · 08:30P. Petr1.831611113J. Koch1.8314880WAug 18 · 07:00P. Petr1.61111129113V. Kubat2.2079111172WAug 18 · 06:00J. Strnad1.57126111172P. Petr2.25141194113WAug 11 · 13:28J. Strnad1.50119111572P. Petr2.50711517113LAug 11 · 12:00J. Strnad1.501615113P. Petr2.50141390WAug 11 · 11:00P. Serak2.3851211872P. Petr1.531110711113
J. Strnad10
LSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830LSep 3 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.201111113J. Strnad4.334460WSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113LSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123WAug 21 · 07:00J. Strnad1.911114113P. Petr1.8061250LAug 18 · 06:00J. Strnad1.57126111172P. Petr2.25141194113LAug 11 · 13:28J. Strnad1.50119111572P. Petr2.50711517113WAug 11 · 12:00J. Strnad1.501615113P. Petr2.50141390
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