TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12397539
Played Aug 11Finished
Petr Serak
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111210117811711
Pavel Petr
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:06 and never touched — 63.8% is still 63.8%
Graded at full timePavel Petr to win
63.8%
63.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Serak above · Pavel Petr below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 93 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Pavel Petr at 63.8%
93 points played in total.
H2H Petr Serak 2–6 Pavel Petr Petr Serak has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:06What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Petr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Petr
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Serak 1033 vs Petr 1164
Petr
Correct
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Serak 20% vs Petr 80%
Petr
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Serak 40% vs Petr 60%
Petr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Serak -3 · Petr +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Petr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Petr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSerak 2.38 / Petr 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Petr)+3.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12397539
Serak2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog20% won 5 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back8% 1 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Petr1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 23 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it81% 17 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSerak2wins
AwayPetr6wins
3 of 8 to a deciderPetr leads 6–2, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSerak40%2 of 5
AwayPetr100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Serak5Petr3n = 8Serak took 5 of 8
S2Serak5Petr3n = 8Serak took 5 of 8
S3Serak3Petr5n = 8Petr took 5 of 8
S4Serak1Petr4n = 5Petr took 4 of 5
S5Serak0Petr3n = 3Petr took 3 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricSerakPetrS − PBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match34.037.5−3.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSerakPetrBasisWin rate · lifetime79 / 187 vs 78 / 13842.3%56.5%79 / 187 vs 78 / 138Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PetrSerak 2.38/Petr 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.8%
Petr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Petr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJun 24 · 13:30P. Serak—111161032P. Petr—561112113
LJun 24 · 10:00P. Serak—71111772P. Petr—116911113
LMay 27 · 13:00P. Serak—149531P. Petr—121111113
LMay 27 · 10:00P. Serak—411881P. Petr—11311113
LApr 28 · 12:00P. Serak—3910P. Petr—1111113
WApr 10 · 09:30P. Serak—1311113P. Petr—11830
LApr 10 · 06:00P. Serak—11481192P. Petr—811119113
WJan 23 · 11:00P. Serak—1111133P. Petr—37110
P. Serak10
WAug 22 · 09:00P. Serak1.101211127133J. Koch6.501451011112LAug 22 · 08:00A. Tkachenko1.531110129113P. Serak2.38712101172LAug 22 · 07:00P. Potmesil1.67771111113P. Serak2.1011117972WAug 22 · 06:30P. Serak1.251111113J. Koch3.756860LAug 21 · 08:58P. Petr1.441111113P. Serak2.638490LAug 21 · 08:30J. Strnad1.361111113P. Serak3.004340LAug 21 · 07:30P. Serak2.207860A. Tkachenko1.611111113LAug 21 · 06:30P. Petr1.44881111113P. Serak2.6311118942WAug 12 · 09:30C. Havrda2.2031060P. Serak1.601112113LAug 12 · 08:30J. Strnad1.57101111113P. Serak2.25124751
P. Petr10
WAug 21 · 08:58P. Petr1.441111113P. Serak2.638490LAug 21 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.10111111113P. Petr1.67491371LAug 21 · 07:00J. Strnad1.911114113P. Petr1.8061250WAug 21 · 06:30P. Petr1.44881111113P. Serak2.6311118942WAug 18 · 09:30P. Petr1.9111129113J. Strnad1.807101161WAug 18 · 08:30P. Petr1.831611113J. Koch1.8314880WAug 18 · 07:00P. Petr1.61111129113V. Kubat2.2079111172WAug 18 · 06:00J. Strnad1.57126111172P. Petr2.25141194113WAug 11 · 13:28J. Strnad1.50119111572P. Petr2.50711517113LAug 11 · 12:00J. Strnad1.501615113P. Petr2.50141390
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