TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12402687
Played Aug 12Finished
Jaroslav Strnad 1961
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012114117115––
Petr Serak
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:06 and never touched — 58.8% is still 58.8%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Strnad 1961 to win
58.8%
58.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1961 above · Petr Serak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 71 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Jaroslav Strnad 1961 at 58.8%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1961 17–6 Petr Serak Petr Serak has won 6 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:06What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Strnad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-6 in 23
Strnad
Correct
gap of 11 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1068 vs Serak 1088
Serak
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 60% vs Serak 80%
Serak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 60% vs Serak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad -1 · Serak +4
Serak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Strnad) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Serak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 1.57 / Serak 2.25
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Strnad)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12402687
Strnad1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 21 of 30
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Serak2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog21% won 6 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrnad9wins
AwaySerak1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStrnad leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrnad90%9 of 10
AwaySerakn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strnad10Serak0n = 10Strnad took 10 of 10
S2Strnad7Serak3n = 10Strnad took 7 of 10
S3Strnad7Serak3n = 10Strnad took 7 of 10
S4Strnad3Serak2n = 5Strnad took 3 of 5
S5Strnad2Serak1n = 3Strnad took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrnadSerakStrnad − SerakBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set100+10of 10Avg pointsper match38.530.2+8.3per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadSerakBasisWin rate · lifetime159 / 388 vs 83 / 19241%43.2%159 / 388 vs 83 / 192Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.136.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrnadStrnad 1.57/Serak 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Strnad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 11 · 10:00J. Strnad—127116113P. Serak—101131162
WMay 21 · 08:00J. Strnad—11113113P. Serak—791181
WNov 30 · 17:30J. Strnad—1111113P. Serak—8550
LNov 29 · 17:30J. Strnad—13117892P. Serak—1161111113
WSep 9 · 13:30J. Strnad—11811113P. Serak—911731
WSep 9 · 10:00J. Strnad—1111113P. Serak—4790
WSep 6 · 09:30J. Strnad—1111123P. Serak—96100
WSep 6 · 08:30J. Strnad—119511113P. Serak—51111852
WJul 19 · 13:00J. Strnad—1111113P. Serak—9790
WJul 19 · 10:30J. Strnad—1111113P. Serak—6570
J. Strnad10
LSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830LSep 3 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.201111113J. Strnad4.334460WSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113LSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113LSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891LSep 1 · 08:00J. Cernik1.441111113J. Strnad2.638380
P. Serak10
WAug 22 · 09:00P. Serak1.101211127133J. Koch6.501451011112LAug 22 · 08:00A. Tkachenko1.531110129113P. Serak2.38712101172LAug 22 · 07:00P. Potmesil1.67771111113P. Serak2.1011117972WAug 22 · 06:30P. Serak1.251111113J. Koch3.756860LAug 21 · 08:58P. Petr1.441111113P. Serak2.638490LAug 21 · 08:30J. Strnad1.361111113P. Serak3.004340LAug 21 · 07:30P. Serak2.207860A. Tkachenko1.611111113LAug 21 · 06:30P. Petr1.44881111113P. Serak2.6311118942WAug 12 · 09:30C. Havrda2.2031060P. Serak1.601112113WAug 12 · 07:30P. Serak1.33818116113V. Kubat3.25111671162
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