TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12465648
Played Aug 21Finished
Petr Serak
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711811611––––
Andrii Tkachenko
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Tkachenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Serak above · Andrii Tkachenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 54 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Andrii Tkachenko at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Petr Serak 0–3 Andrii Tkachenko Petr Serak has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:59What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Tkachenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Tkachenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Serak 1060 vs Tkachenko 1139
Tkachenko
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Serak 60% vs Tkachenko 20%
Serak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Serak 50% vs Tkachenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Serak -1 · Tkachenko -3
Tkachenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Tkachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkachenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSerak 2.20 / Tkachenko 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Tkachenko)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12465648
Serak2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog18% won 6 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Tkachenko1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSerak0wins
AwayTkachenko3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderTkachenko leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Serak1Tkachenko2n = 3Tkachenko took 2 of 3
S2Serak1Tkachenko2n = 3Tkachenko took 2 of 3
S3Serak0Tkachenko3n = 3Tkachenko took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricSerakTkachenkoS − TBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match31.743.0−11.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSerakTkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime81 / 194 vs 14 / 3241.8%43.8%81 / 194 vs 14 / 32Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.335.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoSerak 2.20/Tkachenko 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tkachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 22 · 08:00P. Serak—712101172A. Tkachenko—1110129113
LAug 21 · 07:30P. Serak—7860A. Tkachenko—1111113
LJul 27 · 08:00P. Serak—123661A. Tkachenko—101111113
P. Serak10
WAug 22 · 09:00P. Serak1.101211127133J. Koch6.501451011112LAug 22 · 08:00A. Tkachenko1.531110129113P. Serak2.38712101172LAug 22 · 07:00P. Potmesil1.67771111113P. Serak2.1011117972WAug 22 · 06:30P. Serak1.251111113J. Koch3.756860LAug 21 · 08:58P. Petr1.441111113P. Serak2.638490LAug 21 · 08:30J. Strnad1.361111113P. Serak3.004340LAug 21 · 06:30P. Petr1.44881111113P. Serak2.6311118942WAug 12 · 09:30C. Havrda2.2031060P. Serak1.601112113LAug 12 · 08:30J. Strnad1.57101111113P. Serak2.25124751WAug 12 · 07:30P. Serak1.33818116113V. Kubat3.25111671162
A. Tkachenko10
LAug 28 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.54511631L. Novotny2.1811911113WAug 28 · 08:00A. Tkachenko3.40101212113J. Cernik1.3012101091WAug 28 · 07:30L. Novotny1.911110891A. Tkachenko1.8081211113WAug 28 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.001111123V. Kubat1.7397100LAug 27 · 09:28J. Strnad1.831114123A. Tkachenko1.83812100WAug 27 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.501111113L. Novotny1.506650LAug 27 · 07:30V. Kubat1.831111113A. Tkachenko1.839780WAug 27 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.10111110113J. Strnad1.67881231WAug 22 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.6011118113P. Potmesil2.20461151WAug 22 · 08:00A. Tkachenko1.531110129113P. Serak2.38712101172
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.