TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13020124
Played Aug 27Finished
Andrii Tkachenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181181012113––
Jaroslav Strnad 1961
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:20 and never touched — 62.7% is still 62.7%
Graded at full timeAndrii Tkachenko to win
62.7%
62.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Tkachenko above · Jaroslav Strnad 1961 below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 74 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Andrii Tkachenko at 62.7%
74 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Tkachenko 1–3 Jaroslav Strnad 1961 Andrii Tkachenko has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:20What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Strnad
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Strnad
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkachenko 1165 vs Strnad 1169
Strnad
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkachenko 80% vs Strnad 20%
Tkachenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkachenko 50% vs Strnad 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkachenko +4 · Strnad -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Strnad) · live re-read · sealed at 37% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strnad form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkachenko 2.10 / Strnad 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Strnad)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13020124
Tkachenko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 14 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back16% 3 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Strnad1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite72% won 31 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeTkachenko1wins
AwayStrnad3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderStrnad leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkachenko2Strnad2n = 4split evenly
S2Tkachenko2Strnad2n = 4split evenly
S3Tkachenko1Strnad3n = 4Strnad took 3 of 4
S4Tkachenko1Strnad2n = 3Strnad took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricTkachenkoStrnadT − SBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match38.236.8+1.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkachenkoStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime19 / 40 vs 157 / 37347.5%42.1%19 / 40 vs 157 / 373Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.135.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrnadTkachenko 2.10/Strnad 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Strnad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tkachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 27 · 09:28A. Tkachenko—812100J. Strnad—1114123
WAug 27 · 06:00A. Tkachenko—111110113J. Strnad—881231
LAug 21 · 09:28A. Tkachenko—781161J. Strnad—11114113
LAug 21 · 06:00A. Tkachenko—111181172J. Strnad—341113113
A. Tkachenko10
LAug 28 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.54511631L. Novotny2.1811911113WAug 28 · 08:00A. Tkachenko3.40101212113J. Cernik1.3012101091WAug 28 · 07:30L. Novotny1.911110891A. Tkachenko1.8081211113WAug 28 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.001111123V. Kubat1.7397100LAug 27 · 09:28J. Strnad1.831114123A. Tkachenko1.83812100WAug 27 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.501111113L. Novotny1.506650LAug 27 · 07:30V. Kubat1.831111113A. Tkachenko1.839780WAug 22 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.6011118113P. Potmesil2.20461151WAug 22 · 08:00A. Tkachenko1.531110129113P. Serak2.38712101172WAug 22 · 07:30J. Koch1.44581191A. Tkachenko2.6311119113
J. Strnad10
LSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830LSep 3 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.201111113J. Strnad4.334460WSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113LSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113LSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891WAug 27 · 09:28J. Strnad1.831114123A. Tkachenko1.83812100
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