TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13030177
Played Aug 28Finished
Andrii Tkachenko
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
101212101210119––
Jaromir Cernik
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Tkachenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Tkachenko above · Jaromir Cernik below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 86 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Andrii Tkachenko at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Tkachenko 1–1 Jaromir Cernik Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:14What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Cernik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Tkachenko 1180 vs Cernik 1115
Tkachenko
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkachenko 60% vs Cernik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkachenko 80% vs Cernik 50%
Tkachenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkachenko +2 · Cernik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Cernik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkachenko 3.40 / Cernik 1.30
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Cernik)-0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13030177
Tkachenko3.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 12 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Cernik1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 59 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it92% 34 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it78% 43 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeTkachenko1wins
AwayCernik1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricTkachenkoCernikT − CBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match39.540.0−0.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkachenkoCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime19 / 39 vs 364 / 79648.7%45.7%19 / 39 vs 364 / 796Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikTkachenko 3.40/Cernik 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.3%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tkachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 28 · 08:00A. Tkachenko—101212113J. Cernik—12101091
LAug 21 · 15:30A. Tkachenko—971171J. Cernik—11116113
A. Tkachenko10
LAug 28 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.54511631L. Novotny2.1811911113WAug 28 · 07:30L. Novotny1.911110891A. Tkachenko1.8081211113WAug 28 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.001111123V. Kubat1.7397100LAug 27 · 09:28J. Strnad1.831114123A. Tkachenko1.83812100WAug 27 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.501111113L. Novotny1.506650LAug 27 · 07:30V. Kubat1.831111113A. Tkachenko1.839780WAug 27 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.10111110113J. Strnad1.67881231WAug 22 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.6011118113P. Potmesil2.20461151WAug 22 · 08:00A. Tkachenko1.531110129113P. Serak2.38712101172WAug 22 · 07:30J. Koch1.44581191A. Tkachenko2.6311119113
J. Cernik10
LSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030WSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 24:30J. Cernik3.4081310J. Grohsgott1.301115113LSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113LSep 3 · 22:00M. Vaclavik1.401111133J. Cernik2.7585110LSep 1 · 13:30Z. Kasinski1.401111113J. Cernik2.759670WSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113LSep 1 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.801111113J. Cernik1.918860WSep 1 · 10:30J. Cernik2.001611113A. Hejduk1.7314850WSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.