TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13020129
Played Aug 27Finished
Andrii Tkachenko
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116116115––––
Ladislav Novotny
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:17 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeAndrii Tkachenko to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Tkachenko above · Ladislav Novotny below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 50 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Andrii Tkachenko at 60.8%
50 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Tkachenko 1–2 Ladislav Novotny Andrii Tkachenko has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:17What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Novotny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkachenko 1132 vs Novotny 1123
Tkachenko
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkachenko 80% vs Novotny 40%
Tkachenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkachenko 50% vs Novotny 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkachenko -1 · Novotny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 39% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkachenko 2.50 / Novotny 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Novotny)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13020129
Tkachenko2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 10 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Novotny1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 40 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it79% 30 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeTkachenko1wins
AwayNovotny2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderNovotny leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkachenkon = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayNovotny66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkachenko0Novotny3n = 3Novotny took 3 of 3
S2Tkachenko1Novotny2n = 3Novotny took 2 of 3
S3Tkachenko1Novotny2n = 3Novotny took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricTkachenkoNovotnyT − NBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match35.342.3−7.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkachenkoNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime15 / 34 vs 170 / 34244.1%49.7%15 / 34 vs 170 / 342Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyTkachenko 2.50/Novotny 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.5%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tkachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 16 · 08:58A. Tkachenko—751181L. Novotny—11116113
WAug 16 · 07:00A. Tkachenko—1512611123L. Novotny—1710117102
LJul 25 · 06:00A. Tkachenko—5770L. Novotny—1111113
A. Tkachenko10
LAug 28 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.54511631L. Novotny2.1811911113WAug 28 · 08:00A. Tkachenko3.40101212113J. Cernik1.3012101091WAug 28 · 07:30L. Novotny1.911110891A. Tkachenko1.8081211113WAug 28 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.001111123V. Kubat1.7397100LAug 27 · 09:28J. Strnad1.831114123A. Tkachenko1.83812100LAug 27 · 07:30V. Kubat1.831111113A. Tkachenko1.839780WAug 27 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.10111110113J. Strnad1.67881231WAug 22 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.6011118113P. Potmesil2.20461151WAug 22 · 08:00A. Tkachenko1.531110129113P. Serak2.38712101172WAug 22 · 07:30J. Koch1.44581191A. Tkachenko2.6311119113
L. Novotny10
LSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:00L. Novotny1.7331080J. Martinek2.001112113WSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113LSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113WSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113WSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151WAug 28 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.54511631L. Novotny2.1811911113LAug 28 · 07:30L. Novotny1.911110891A. Tkachenko1.8081211113
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