TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12402698
Played Aug 12Finished
Petr Serak
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111816117611116
Vladimir Kubat
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:07 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timePetr Serak to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Serak above · Vladimir Kubat below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 18-16
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 105 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Petr Serak at 63.3%
105 points played in total.
H2H Petr Serak 10–1 Vladimir Kubat Vladimir Kubat has won 1 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:07What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Serak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-1 in 11
Serak
Correct
gap of 9 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Serak 1097 vs Kubat 1078
Serak
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Serak 60% vs Kubat 40%
Serak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Serak 50% vs Kubat 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Serak +3 · Kubat -1
Serak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Serak) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Serak form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSerak 1.33 / Kubat 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Serak)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12402698
Serak1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 21 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it65% 15 of 23
Kubat3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog29% won 25 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back19% 10 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSerak9wins
AwayKubat1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSerak leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSerak88.9%8 of 9
AwayKubatn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Serak9Kubat1n = 10Serak took 9 of 10
S2Serak4Kubat6n = 10Kubat took 6 of 10
S3Serak5Kubat5n = 10split evenly
S4Serak6Kubat2n = 8Serak took 6 of 8
S5Serak4Kubat0n = 4Serak took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSerakKubatS − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match44.238.4+5.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSerakKubatBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 194 vs 132 / 31843.3%41.5%84 / 194 vs 132 / 318Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.535.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SerakSerak 1.33/Kubat 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.9%
Serak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Serak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 07:30P. Serak—818116113V. Kubat—111671162
WSep 9 · 12:30P. Serak—11811113V. Kubat—611671
WJul 11 · 09:30P. Serak—13111011113V. Kubat—111312762
WJul 11 · 06:30P. Serak—11611113V. Kubat—511891
WJun 23 · 12:30P. Serak—1211113V. Kubat—10960
LJun 2 · 11:30P. Serak—111013131V. Kubat—41215153
WApr 23 · 12:30P. Serak—1110711143V. Kubat—312113122
WApr 11 · 08:30P. Serak—1111113V. Kubat—9990
WMar 1 · 10:00P. Serak—115311113V. Kubat—71111992
WMar 1 · 09:30P. Serak—13119113V. Kubat—1161171
P. Serak10
WAug 22 · 09:00P. Serak1.101211127133J. Koch6.501451011112LAug 22 · 08:00A. Tkachenko1.531110129113P. Serak2.38712101172LAug 22 · 07:00P. Potmesil1.67771111113P. Serak2.1011117972WAug 22 · 06:30P. Serak1.251111113J. Koch3.756860LAug 21 · 08:58P. Petr1.441111113P. Serak2.638490LAug 21 · 08:30J. Strnad1.361111113P. Serak3.004340LAug 21 · 07:30P. Serak2.207860A. Tkachenko1.611111113LAug 21 · 06:30P. Petr1.44881111113P. Serak2.6311118942WAug 12 · 09:30C. Havrda2.2031060P. Serak1.601112113LAug 12 · 08:30J. Strnad1.57101111113P. Serak2.25124751
V. Kubat10
LAug 28 · 08:59J. Cernik1.611311113V. Kubat2.2011940LAug 28 · 08:30V. Kubat3.256690L. Novotny1.331111113LAug 28 · 07:00V. Kubat2.388560J. Cernik1.531111113LAug 28 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.001111123V. Kubat1.7397100LAug 27 · 09:08V. Kubat2.7510750L. Novotny1.401211113LAug 27 · 08:30J. Strnad1.80611911113V. Kubat1.9111811292WAug 27 · 07:30V. Kubat1.831111113A. Tkachenko1.839780LAug 27 · 06:30L. Novotny1.4411113113V. Kubat2.63471151WAug 24 · 12:58C. Havrda1.44681171V. Kubat2.6311115113LAug 24 · 12:30V. Kubat2.636870M. Smesny1.441111113
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