TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12449590
Played Aug 18Finished
Pavel Petr
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117119211911117
Vladimir Kubat
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:33 and never touched — 63.8% is still 63.8%
Graded at full timePavel Petr to win
63.8%
63.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Petr above · Vladimir Kubat below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 89 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Pavel Petr at 63.8%
89 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Petr 5–2 Vladimir Kubat Vladimir Kubat has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:33What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Petr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Petr
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Petr 1179 vs Kubat 1084
Petr
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Petr 80% vs Kubat 20%
Petr
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Petr 70% vs Kubat 40%
Petr
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Petr +2 · Kubat +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Petr) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubat form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPetr 1.61 / Kubat 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Petr)+3.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12449590
Petr1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite72% won 26 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it83% 20 of 24
Kubat2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog28% won 24 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back19% 10 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomePetr5wins
AwayKubat2wins
4 of 7 to a deciderPetr leads 5–2, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePetr75%3 of 4
AwayKubat33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Petr4Kubat3n = 7Petr took 4 of 7
S2Petr4Kubat3n = 7Petr took 4 of 7
S3Petr4Kubat3n = 7Petr took 4 of 7
S4Petr1Kubat5n = 6Kubat took 5 of 6
S5Petr4Kubat0n = 4Petr took 4 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home457%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricPetrKubatP − KBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match41.341.6−0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPetrKubatBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 141 vs 129 / 31458.2%41.1%82 / 141 vs 129 / 314Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PetrPetr 1.61/Kubat 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.7%
Petr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Petr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 18 · 07:00P. Petr—111129113V. Kubat—79111172
WJul 8 · 06:00P. Petr—1111113V. Kubat—9940
LJun 17 · 07:00P. Petr—1151051V. Kubat—71112113
WMay 6 · 08:00P. Petr—811118113V. Kubat—11781192
WMar 11 · 08:00P. Petr—961111113V. Kubat—11119892
LFeb 16 · 10:30P. Petr—981351V. Kubat—111111113
WFeb 16 · 09:30P. Petr—141158113V. Kubat—122111192
P. Petr10
WAug 21 · 08:58P. Petr1.441111113P. Serak2.638490LAug 21 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.10111111113P. Petr1.67491371LAug 21 · 07:00J. Strnad1.911114113P. Petr1.8061250WAug 21 · 06:30P. Petr1.44881111113P. Serak2.6311118942WAug 18 · 09:30P. Petr1.9111129113J. Strnad1.807101161WAug 18 · 08:30P. Petr1.831611113J. Koch1.8314880WAug 18 · 06:00J. Strnad1.57126111172P. Petr2.25141194113WAug 11 · 13:28J. Strnad1.50119111572P. Petr2.50711517113LAug 11 · 12:00J. Strnad1.501615113P. Petr2.50141390WAug 11 · 11:00P. Serak2.3851211872P. Petr1.531110711113
V. Kubat10
LAug 28 · 08:59J. Cernik1.611311113V. Kubat2.2011940LAug 28 · 08:30V. Kubat3.256690L. Novotny1.331111113LAug 28 · 07:00V. Kubat2.388560J. Cernik1.531111113LAug 28 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.001111123V. Kubat1.7397100LAug 27 · 09:08V. Kubat2.7510750L. Novotny1.401211113LAug 27 · 08:30J. Strnad1.80611911113V. Kubat1.9111811292WAug 27 · 07:30V. Kubat1.831111113A. Tkachenko1.839780LAug 27 · 06:30L. Novotny1.4411113113V. Kubat2.63471151WAug 24 · 12:58C. Havrda1.44681171V. Kubat2.6311115113LAug 24 · 12:30V. Kubat2.636870M. Smesny1.441111113
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