TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12465642
Played Aug 21Finished
Jaroslav Strnad 1961
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161412115––––
Pavel Petr
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:59 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timePavel Petr to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1961 above · Pavel Petr below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 59 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Pavel Petr at 55.2%
59 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1961 4–3 Pavel Petr Pavel Petr has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:59What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Petr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1147 vs Petr 1175
Petr
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 60% vs Petr 100%
Petr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 60% vs Petr 90%
Petr
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad +1 · Petr +5
Petr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Petr) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Petr form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 1.91 / Petr 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Petr)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12465642
Strnad1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog25% won 16 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back11% 5 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Petr1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite70% won 28 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it84% 21 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeStrnad4wins
AwayPetr3wins
2 of 7 to a deciderStrnad leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrnad75%3 of 4
AwayPetr66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strnad4Petr3n = 7Strnad took 4 of 7
S2Strnad4Petr3n = 7Strnad took 4 of 7
S3Strnad7Petr0n = 7Strnad took 7 of 7
S4Strnad2Petr2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home343%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricStrnadPetrS − PBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match40.737.4+3.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadPetrBasisWin rate · lifetime155 / 377 vs 84 / 14541.1%57.9%155 / 377 vs 84 / 145Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PetrStrnad 1.91/Petr 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Petr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 21 · 07:00J. Strnad—1114113P. Petr—61250
LAug 18 · 09:30J. Strnad—7101161P. Petr—11129113
LAug 18 · 06:00J. Strnad—126111172P. Petr—141194113
LAug 11 · 13:28J. Strnad—119111572P. Petr—711517113
WAug 11 · 12:00J. Strnad—1615113P. Petr—141390
WJun 29 · 06:00J. Strnad—1112113P. Petr—61090
WFeb 11 · 12:00J. Strnad—51112113P. Petr—1171071
J. Strnad10
LSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830LSep 3 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.201111113J. Strnad4.334460WSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113LSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113LSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891LSep 1 · 08:00J. Cernik1.441111113J. Strnad2.638380
P. Petr10
WAug 21 · 08:58P. Petr1.441111113P. Serak2.638490LAug 21 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.10111111113P. Petr1.67491371WAug 21 · 06:30P. Petr1.44881111113P. Serak2.6311118942WAug 18 · 09:30P. Petr1.9111129113J. Strnad1.807101161WAug 18 · 08:30P. Petr1.831611113J. Koch1.8314880WAug 18 · 07:00P. Petr1.61111129113V. Kubat2.2079111172WAug 18 · 06:00J. Strnad1.57126111172P. Petr2.25141194113WAug 11 · 13:28J. Strnad1.50119111572P. Petr2.50711517113LAug 11 · 12:00J. Strnad1.501615113P. Petr2.50141390WAug 11 · 11:00P. Serak2.3851211872P. Petr1.531110711113
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