TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12390615
Played Aug 10Finished
Pavel Potmesil
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5118111113––––
Alexander Hejduk
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAlexander Hejduk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Potmesil above · Alexander Hejduk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 59 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Alexander Hejduk at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Potmesil 0–1 Alexander Hejduk Pavel Potmesil has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:16What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Hejduk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Potmesil 1040 vs Hejduk 1130
Hejduk
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potmesil 40% vs Hejduk 0%
Potmesil
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potmesil 40% vs Hejduk 10%
Potmesil
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Potmesil -2 · Hejduk -5
Hejduk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Hejduk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hejduk form (0%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotmesil 2.20 / Hejduk 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Hejduk)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12390615
Potmesil2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 11 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back24% 5 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back14% 2 of 14
Hejduk1.61
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 41 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it83% 29 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePotmesil0wins
AwayHejduk1wins
Hejduk leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricPotmesilHejdukP − HBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match24.035.0−11.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotmesilHejdukBasisWin rate · lifetime25 / 56 vs 192 / 41544.6%46.3%25 / 56 vs 192 / 415Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HejdukPotmesil 2.20/Hejduk 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Hejduk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hejduk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 10 · 06:30P. Potmesil—58110A. Hejduk—1111133
P. Potmesil10
LAug 22 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.6011118113P. Potmesil2.20461151WAug 22 · 08:30P. Potmesil1.671111113J. Koch2.101690WAug 22 · 07:00P. Potmesil1.67771111113P. Serak2.1011117972LAug 22 · 06:00A. Tkachenko1.831111113P. Potmesil1.834790LAug 10 · 08:58V. Kubat1.5011115113P. Potmesil2.50781181LAug 10 · 08:00J. Strnad2.0011911113P. Potmesil1.73611191LAug 10 · 07:00V. Kubat1.6711711113P. Potmesil2.10611741LJul 27 · 09:30P. Potmesil1.283590A. Tkachenko3.501111113LJul 27 · 08:30J. Jira2.5051113133P. Potmesil1.5011711111WJul 27 · 07:30P. Potmesil1.611111113A. Tkachenko2.208590
A. Hejduk10
LSep 7 · 08:58J. Srba1.8361111123A. Hejduk1.831167101LSep 7 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.61111111113A. Hejduk2.20841371LSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.20117881D. Mutl1.6191111113LSep 7 · 06:30J. Srba2.3811116113A. Hejduk1.53721171WSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030LSep 4 · 02:30A. Hejduk2.506790M. Vaclavik1.501111113LSep 4 · 01:30J. Grohsgott1.671111113A. Hejduk2.106880WSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830WSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113WSep 1 · 12:59C. Havrda3.759780A. Hejduk1.251111113
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