TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12306011
Played Jul 27Finished
Pavel Potmesil
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118115119––––
Andrii Tkachenko
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–4Last 5Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:46 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timePavel Potmesil to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Potmesil above · Andrii Tkachenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 55 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Pavel Potmesil at 60.9%
55 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Potmesil 1–1 Andrii Tkachenko Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:46What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Potmesil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Potmesil 1105 vs Tkachenko 1110
Tkachenko
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potmesil 60% vs Tkachenko 20%
Potmesil
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potmesil 50% vs Tkachenko 20%
Potmesil
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Potmesil +1 · Tkachenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Potmesil) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkachenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotmesil 1.61 / Tkachenko 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Potmesil)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12306011
Potmesil1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite61% won 11 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Tkachenko2.20
20%won 1 of 5 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 2 of 5
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePotmesil1wins
AwayTkachenko1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricPotmesilTkachenkoP − TBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match25.027.5−2.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotmesilTkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime25 / 52 vs 3 / 848.1%37.5%25 / 52 vs 3 / 8Avg sets wonper match2.01.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.728.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotmesilPotmesil 1.61/Tkachenko 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Potmesil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Potmesil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJul 27 · 09:30P. Potmesil—3590A. Tkachenko—1111113
WJul 27 · 07:30P. Potmesil—1111113A. Tkachenko—8590
P. Potmesil10
LAug 22 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.6011118113P. Potmesil2.20461151WAug 22 · 08:30P. Potmesil1.671111113J. Koch2.101690WAug 22 · 07:00P. Potmesil1.67771111113P. Serak2.1011117972LAug 22 · 06:00A. Tkachenko1.831111113P. Potmesil1.834790LAug 10 · 08:58V. Kubat1.5011115113P. Potmesil2.50781181LAug 10 · 08:00J. Strnad2.0011911113P. Potmesil1.73611191LAug 10 · 07:00V. Kubat1.6711711113P. Potmesil2.10611741LAug 10 · 06:30P. Potmesil2.2058110A. Hejduk1.611111133LJul 27 · 09:30P. Potmesil1.283590A. Tkachenko3.501111113LJul 27 · 08:30J. Jira2.5051113133P. Potmesil1.5011711111
A. Tkachenko10
LAug 28 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.54511631L. Novotny2.1811911113WAug 28 · 08:00A. Tkachenko3.40101212113J. Cernik1.3012101091WAug 28 · 07:30L. Novotny1.911110891A. Tkachenko1.8081211113WAug 28 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.001111123V. Kubat1.7397100LAug 27 · 09:28J. Strnad1.831114123A. Tkachenko1.83812100WAug 27 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.501111113L. Novotny1.506650LAug 27 · 07:30V. Kubat1.831111113A. Tkachenko1.839780WAug 22 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.6011118113P. Potmesil2.20461151WAug 22 · 06:00A. Tkachenko1.831111113P. Potmesil1.834790WJul 27 · 09:30P. Potmesil1.283590A. Tkachenko3.501111113
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