TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12390904
Played Aug 10Finished
Jaroslav Strnad 1961
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116911111119––
Pavel Potmesil
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:17 and never touched — 60.7% is still 60.7%
Graded at full timePavel Potmesil to win
60.7%
60.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1961 above · Pavel Potmesil below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 69 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Pavel Potmesil at 60.7%
69 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1961 0–2 Pavel Potmesil Jaroslav Strnad 1961 has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:17What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Potmesil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1027 vs Potmesil 1076
Potmesil
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 40% vs Potmesil 20%
Strnad
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 20% vs Potmesil 40%
Potmesil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad -1 · Potmesil -4
Potmesil
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Potmesil) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potmesil form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 2.00 / Potmesil 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Potmesil)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12390904
Strnad2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog22% won 13 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back10% 4 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Potmesil1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 11 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeStrnad0wins
AwayPotmesil2wins
2 of 2 to a deciderPotmesil leads 2–0, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away2
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricStrnadPotmesilS − PBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match43.544.5−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadPotmesilBasisWin rate · lifetime156 / 385 vs 25 / 5440.5%46.3%156 / 385 vs 25 / 54Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotmesilStrnad 2.00/Potmesil 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Potmesil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LMay 21 · 09:30J. Strnad—61181152P. Potmesil—117115113
LMay 21 · 07:30J. Strnad—911111052P. Potmesil—116412113
J. Strnad10
LSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830LSep 3 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.201111113J. Strnad4.334460WSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113LSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113LSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891LSep 1 · 08:00J. Cernik1.441111113J. Strnad2.638380
P. Potmesil10
LAug 22 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.6011118113P. Potmesil2.20461151WAug 22 · 08:30P. Potmesil1.671111113J. Koch2.101690WAug 22 · 07:00P. Potmesil1.67771111113P. Serak2.1011117972LAug 22 · 06:00A. Tkachenko1.831111113P. Potmesil1.834790LAug 10 · 08:58V. Kubat1.5011115113P. Potmesil2.50781181LAug 10 · 07:00V. Kubat1.6711711113P. Potmesil2.10611741LAug 10 · 06:30P. Potmesil2.2058110A. Hejduk1.611111133LJul 27 · 09:30P. Potmesil1.283590A. Tkachenko3.501111113LJul 27 · 08:30J. Jira2.5051113133P. Potmesil1.5011711111WJul 27 · 07:30P. Potmesil1.611111113A. Tkachenko2.208590
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