TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12472748
Played Aug 22Finished
Ales Brandtl Jr
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113711411––––
Zdenek Muhlhauser
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:05 and never touched — 74.5% is still 74.5%
Graded at full timeZdenek Muhlhauser to win
74.5%
74.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Brandtl Jr above · Zdenek Muhlhauser below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 57 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Zdenek Muhlhauser at 74.5%
57 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Jr 1–2 Zdenek Muhlhauser Ales Brandtl Jr has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:05What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Muhlhauser
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1401 vs Muhlhauser 1579
Muhlhauser
Correct
both rated, 178 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 0% vs Muhlhauser 60%
Muhlhauser
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 10% vs Muhlhauser 50%
Muhlhauser
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -5 · Muhlhauser +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Muhlhauser) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (0%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.38 / Muhlhauser 1.53
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Muhlhauser)+7.0pp
TT Cup · #12472748
Jr2.38
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 71 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back29% 29 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 56
Muhlhauser1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 27 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it73% 16 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeJr1wins
AwayMuhlhauser2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderMuhlhauser leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr2Muhlhauser1n = 3Jr took 2 of 3
S2Jr0Muhlhauser3n = 3Muhlhauser took 3 of 3
S3Jr0Muhlhauser3n = 3Muhlhauser took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricJrMuhlhauserJ − MBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match33.740.7−7.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrMuhlhauserBasisWin rate · lifetime249 / 533 vs 57 / 11146.7%51.4%249 / 533 vs 57 / 111Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuhlhauserJr 2.38/Muhlhauser 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.8%
Muhlhauser · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Muhlhauser won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 22 · 07:25A. Jr—11740Z. Muhlhauser—1311113
LFeb 6 · 23:10A. Jr—115681Z. Muhlhauser—61111113
WFeb 6 · 20:25A. Jr—136811113Z. Muhlhauser—111111782
A. Jr10
LSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143LSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123WSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772LSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113LSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr2.381111113L. Rek1.538780LAug 31 · 10:03A. Jr2.639980O. Knazik1.441111113LAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551
Z. Muhlhauser10
WAug 22 · 10:33Z. Muhlhauser1.8011139113P. Vodal1.919111191LAug 22 · 09:25Z. Muhlhauser1.5371151192P. Vodal2.38113116113WAug 22 · 07:55T. Rein3.008970Z. Muhlhauser1.361111113WAug 15 · 14:35O. Knazik2.20167111162Z. Muhlhauser1.61181137113WAug 15 · 12:55J. Dohnal2.3811114842Z. Muhlhauser1.53661111113WAug 15 · 12:25P. Vodal1.579650Z. Muhlhauser2.251111113LAug 15 · 11:25Z. Muhlhauser1.4439121282O. Knazik2.6311111010113LAug 14 · 18:04Z. Muhlhauser1.73117881J. Cousin2.0031111113LAug 14 · 17:25Z. Muhlhauser2.005119121M. Filipek1.7311911143LAug 14 · 15:55D. Tichy1.801111113Z. Muhlhauser1.919470
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