TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12472968
Played Aug 22Finished
Zdenek Muhlhauser
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711113511116911
Petr Vodal
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZdenek Muhlhauser to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingZdenek Muhlhauser above · Petr Vodal below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 85 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Zdenek Muhlhauser at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Muhlhauser 1–2 Petr Vodal Zdenek Muhlhauser has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:15What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Muhlhauser
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Muhlhauser 1586 vs Vodal 1485
Muhlhauser
Wrong
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muhlhauser 100% vs Vodal 60%
Muhlhauser
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muhlhauser 60% vs Vodal 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Muhlhauser +5 · Vodal -1
Muhlhauser
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Muhlhauser) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vodal form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuhlhauser 1.53 / Vodal 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Muhlhauser)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12472968
Muhlhauser1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 24 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it68% 13 of 19
Vodal2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 43 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back29% 13 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMuhlhauser1wins
AwayVodal2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderVodal leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muhlhauser2Vodal1n = 3Muhlhauser took 2 of 3
S2Muhlhauser2Vodal1n = 3Muhlhauser took 2 of 3
S3Muhlhauser2Vodal1n = 3Muhlhauser took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMuhlhauserVodalM − VBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match37.036.3+0.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuhlhauserVodalBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 109 vs 240 / 47051.4%51.1%56 / 109 vs 240 / 470Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuhlhauserMuhlhauser 1.53/Vodal 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Muhlhauser · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vodal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 15 · 12:25Z. Muhlhauser—1111113P. Vodal—9650
LJan 25 · 11:10Z. Muhlhauser—61111652P. Vodal—119611113
LJan 25 · 08:55Z. Muhlhauser—1199101P. Vodal—71111123
Z. Muhlhauser10
WAug 22 · 10:33Z. Muhlhauser1.8011139113P. Vodal1.919111191WAug 22 · 07:55T. Rein3.008970Z. Muhlhauser1.361111113WAug 22 · 07:25A. Jr2.3811740Z. Muhlhauser1.531311113WAug 15 · 14:35O. Knazik2.20167111162Z. Muhlhauser1.61181137113WAug 15 · 12:55J. Dohnal2.3811114842Z. Muhlhauser1.53661111113WAug 15 · 12:25P. Vodal1.579650Z. Muhlhauser2.251111113LAug 15 · 11:25Z. Muhlhauser1.4439121282O. Knazik2.6311111010113LAug 14 · 18:04Z. Muhlhauser1.73117881J. Cousin2.0031111113LAug 14 · 17:25Z. Muhlhauser2.005119121M. Filipek1.7311911143LAug 14 · 15:55D. Tichy1.801111113Z. Muhlhauser1.919470
P. Vodal10
LSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192WSep 6 · 08:50B. Budik1.5361181192P. Vodal2.38117119113WSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal3.75116118113T. Hnizdil1.2581171192LSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962LSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein1.73771211113P. Vodal2.00111110972LSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein1.80141114163P. Vodal1.91121312141LSep 5 · 08:25B. Budik1.671111113P. Vodal2.105690LSep 5 · 07:25P. Vodal3.4011680T. Hnizdil1.301311113LAug 22 · 10:33Z. Muhlhauser1.8011139113P. Vodal1.919111191LAug 15 · 12:25P. Vodal1.579650Z. Muhlhauser2.251111113
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