TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12436667
Played Aug 15Finished
Jaroslav Dohnal
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116116411811411
Zdenek Muhlhauser
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJaroslav Dohnal above · Zdenek Muhlhauser below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 83 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Dohnal 6–7 Zdenek Muhlhauser Jaroslav Dohnal has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:41What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Muhlhauser
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dohnal 1479 vs Muhlhauser 1496
Muhlhauser
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dohnal 20% vs Muhlhauser 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dohnal 20% vs Muhlhauser 50%
Muhlhauser
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dohnal -4 · Muhlhauser +1
Dohnal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Muhlhauser) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muhlhauser form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDohnal 2.38 / Muhlhauser 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Muhlhauser)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12436667
Dohnal2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog19% won 4 of 21
Down 0–1, comes back14% 2 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Muhlhauser1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 25 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it70% 14 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDohnal3wins
AwayMuhlhauser7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMuhlhauser leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDohnal66.7%2 of 3
AwayMuhlhauser85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dohnal3Muhlhauser7n = 10Muhlhauser took 7 of 10
S2Dohnal6Muhlhauser4n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10
S3Dohnal4Muhlhauser6n = 10Muhlhauser took 6 of 10
S4Dohnal4Muhlhauser5n = 9Muhlhauser took 5 of 9
S5Dohnal1Muhlhauser3n = 4Muhlhauser took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDohnalMuhlhauserD − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.240.9−0.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDohnalMuhlhauserBasisWin rate · lifetime414 / 688 vs 52 / 10560.2%49.5%414 / 688 vs 52 / 105Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuhlhauserDohnal 2.38/Muhlhauser 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Muhlhauser · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Muhlhauser won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 29 · 21:25J. Dohnal—131111882Z. Muhlhauser—158611113
LMay 16 · 12:25J. Dohnal—91151152Z. Muhlhauser—119116113
WApr 26 · 08:25J. Dohnal—111210113Z. Muhlhauser—9101291
LApr 19 · 14:31J. Dohnal—1111101082Z. Muhlhauser—961212113
LApr 19 · 12:55J. Dohnal—811301Z. Muhlhauser—1171113
LApr 6 · 11:55J. Dohnal—611791Z. Muhlhauser—11511113
LMar 28 · 13:55J. Dohnal—81090Z. Muhlhauser—1112113
WFeb 22 · 14:25J. Dohnal—9101111143Z. Muhlhauser—111247122
LFeb 22 · 11:35J. Dohnal—971191Z. Muhlhauser—11111113
WFeb 22 · 08:25J. Dohnal—14711113Z. Muhlhauser—1211691
J. Dohnal10
WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192LSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113WSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131WSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962WSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113WSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113WSep 3 · 20:20J. Dohnal2.001612125153M. Filipek1.7314101411132
Z. Muhlhauser10
WAug 22 · 10:33Z. Muhlhauser1.8011139113P. Vodal1.919111191LAug 22 · 09:25Z. Muhlhauser1.5371151192P. Vodal2.38113116113WAug 22 · 07:55T. Rein3.008970Z. Muhlhauser1.361111113WAug 22 · 07:25A. Jr2.3811740Z. Muhlhauser1.531311113WAug 15 · 14:35O. Knazik2.20167111162Z. Muhlhauser1.61181137113WAug 15 · 12:25P. Vodal1.579650Z. Muhlhauser2.251111113LAug 15 · 11:25Z. Muhlhauser1.4439121282O. Knazik2.6311111010113LAug 14 · 18:04Z. Muhlhauser1.73117881J. Cousin2.0031111113LAug 14 · 17:25Z. Muhlhauser2.005119121M. Filipek1.7311911143LAug 14 · 15:55D. Tichy1.801111113Z. Muhlhauser1.919470
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