TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12436681
Played Aug 15Finished
Petr Vodal
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911611511––––
Zdenek Muhlhauser
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:51 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timePetr Vodal to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Vodal above · Zdenek Muhlhauser below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 53 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Petr Vodal at 62.5%
53 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vodal 2–1 Zdenek Muhlhauser Zdenek Muhlhauser has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:51What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vodal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vodal 1493 vs Muhlhauser 1570
Muhlhauser
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vodal 80% vs Muhlhauser 20%
Vodal
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vodal 80% vs Muhlhauser 40%
Vodal
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vodal +4 · Muhlhauser -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Vodal) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muhlhauser form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVodal 1.57 / Muhlhauser 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Vodal)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12436681
Vodal1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 44 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it73% 32 of 44
Muhlhauser2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 22 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back26% 6 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeVodal2wins
AwayMuhlhauser1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderVodal leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vodal1Muhlhauser2n = 3Muhlhauser took 2 of 3
S2Vodal1Muhlhauser2n = 3Muhlhauser took 2 of 3
S3Vodal1Muhlhauser2n = 3Muhlhauser took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricVodalMuhlhauserV − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match36.337.0−0.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVodalMuhlhauserBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 472 vs 54 / 10750.9%50.5%240 / 472 vs 54 / 107Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VodalVodal 1.57/Muhlhauser 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Vodal · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Muhlhauser won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 15 · 12:25P. Vodal—9650Z. Muhlhauser—1111113
WJan 25 · 11:10P. Vodal—119611113Z. Muhlhauser—61111652
WJan 25 · 08:55P. Vodal—71111123Z. Muhlhauser—1199101
P. Vodal10
LSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192WSep 6 · 08:50B. Budik1.5361181192P. Vodal2.38117119113WSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal3.75116118113T. Hnizdil1.2581171192LSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962LSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein1.73771211113P. Vodal2.00111110972LSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein1.80141114163P. Vodal1.91121312141LSep 5 · 08:25B. Budik1.671111113P. Vodal2.105690LSep 5 · 07:25P. Vodal3.4011680T. Hnizdil1.301311113LAug 30 · 13:30P. Vodal1.73107111172J. Dohnal2.00121197113WAug 30 · 12:50P. Vodal2.001011116123J. Dohnal1.73126311102
Z. Muhlhauser10
WAug 22 · 10:33Z. Muhlhauser1.8011139113P. Vodal1.919111191LAug 22 · 09:25Z. Muhlhauser1.5371151192P. Vodal2.38113116113WAug 22 · 07:55T. Rein3.008970Z. Muhlhauser1.361111113WAug 22 · 07:25A. Jr2.3811740Z. Muhlhauser1.531311113WAug 15 · 14:35O. Knazik2.20167111162Z. Muhlhauser1.61181137113WAug 15 · 12:55J. Dohnal2.3811114842Z. Muhlhauser1.53661111113LAug 15 · 11:25Z. Muhlhauser1.4439121282O. Knazik2.6311111010113LAug 14 · 18:04Z. Muhlhauser1.73117881J. Cousin2.0031111113LAug 14 · 17:25Z. Muhlhauser2.005119121M. Filipek1.7311911143LAug 14 · 15:55D. Tichy1.801111113Z. Muhlhauser1.919470
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